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Thread: No sellers

  1. #1

    No sellers

    The issue of today's market is that because central banks are the real buyers of assets while keeping rates low, there is no remaining short-seller.

    Under such circumstances, gold should be going to new highs, but gold is under heavy pressure today.

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    The Yen is heavily sold, while the US$... is also sold.

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    Oil is also very strong today, pushing energy with it. Probably the result of the Chinese territorial claims being dashed by independent courts. This probably means a cold war starting between China and the US, with its side effects: China selling US Treasuries.

    I have a 10% short position (underwater) in this market, hoping that the earnings season will bring "value" to the front burner instead of Central Banks. Probably wishful thinking...



    Pascal

  2. #2
    I find the thought helpful, that part of the USD weakness is money flushing back from cash into equities.
    (assumes that not much private money was in bonds - so the bond selloff has less impact on usd )

    <- this is actually supported by the ES/ZB ratio:

    http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php...8345917807.png

    top panel SP500 Futures
    lower panel SP500 Futures / bonds ratio

    The money that fuels the current equity rally does not only come out of bonds.
    (otherwise they are like moon and sun)
    Last edited by PeterR; 07-12-2016 at 02:58 PM.

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