Originally Posted by
Pascal
I never look at the GDX EV pattern itself, because it is misleading. It is almost a contrarian indicator.
The RT model is built using the LEV * Price from each of the component, one by one. If it is up, it means that large players are buying. It is useful to watch the LEV pattern of the main components such as ABX, GG, AEM, NEM, SLW, KGC
Most of the large funds are heavily shorts the gold miners. Some have started covering, but with the mood regarding interest rates, I believe that shorts will still stay strong. As of now, there are mainly three types of signals that work on GDX:
Buy Oversold if you take your profit early enough
Short or Short Overbought (they are almost none in this environment)
The Buy signals on the GDX model do not work well because of the heavy short position: when GDX reaches the Buy level, it is often not far from a downturn.
I also closely watch the EV pattern for the gold Futures (GOLDF) as well as the USD.
Pascal