AAPL

[grems8544]

I was watching it throughout the day b/c I knew that it wasn't going to pin where max pain was the evening of the 17th.

Here's a snapshot of the final max pain, according to yesterday's (Saturday's) settlement data. It appears max pain was $510.



Although I look at max pain when I look at optional stocks, I've never found a way to make it actionable in a way to make money. I'm interested in actionable ideas that can work with max pain.

My work to date has focused on weeklies -- I think weekly options tie nicely to max pain for the weeklies, but time decay certainly will nail you to the wall if you're wrong.

Interesting exercise.

In the for what it's worth column, February expiration has max pain at $600:



I think it important to watch multiple time frames on AAPL with EV:



Right-click any of these images to open in a new tab or window.

Here, I've got four EV presentations on AAPL: The top is a 5d lookback, e.g., the accumulators for LEV, SEV, and TEV are reset 5 days ago. Below that is a 10d, then below that is a 20d, and finally, below that, is a 40d.

On a 40d scale there have been buyers of AAPL with respect to LEV, while the retail/small investor has sold. In fact, the retail investor has sold more than what has been accumulated by the large player, so this is most likely an influence in the dropping prices over the past 40 days. AAPL has fallen -12.5% in the past 40 trading days.

On a 20d scale large players have been net accumulators while the retail world is nearly neutral (slight distribution. AAPL has fallen in price -5.5% over the past 20d while large players accumulate. Interesting.

On a 10d scale we're more/less at equilibrium around buying/selling. AAPL has dropped -5.9% over the past 10d.

On a 5d scale large players are stepping in while retail has continued to sell. AAPL has fallen -4.6% in the past 5d.

All price changes relative to their prices Xd ago.

Bottom line, I interpret this, in conjunction with options max pain for February at $600, as quite bullish. Whether we get to $600 is anybody's guess, but smart money (e.g. LEV) suggests accumulation is starting to pick back up at these prices and we are most likely headed higher in AAPL.

Remember, my crystal ball is as good as yours.

Regards,

pgd