XLE new short

[roberto.giusto]

Yesterday the system changed from buy to short for XLE.

If I am "reading" well, the oil futures, USO and SCO are giving mixed signals, while the single energy sectors would seem to be actually experiencing a pullback, but I wonder if it's going to be short lived and if shorting here is advisable.

I also know that if a system is automatic, one should just follow "as is", and I only have a trial position right now, even so I would like to hear some thoughts if possible from more experienced traders.

I also have a little suggestion for the future implementation of the XLX automatic trading: it would help to know if and where the system places its initial stops, in order to calculate the correct risk allocation.

Thanks to everyone and Pascal above all, as I know he is working very hard these days for a service that it's becoming more and more impressive.


Roberto

[Pascal]

Yesterday the system changed from buy to short for XLE.

If I am "reading" well, the oil futures, USO and SCO are giving mixed signals, while the single energy sectors would seem to be actually experiencing a pullback, but I wonder if it's going to be short lived and if shorting here is advisable.

I also know that if a system is automatic, one should just follow "as is", and I only have a trial position right now, even so I would like to hear some thoughts if possible from more experienced traders.

I also have a little suggestion for the future implementation of the XLX automatic trading: it would help to know if and where the system places its initial stops, in order to calculate the correct risk allocation.

Thanks to everyone and Pascal above all, as I know he is working very hard these days for a service that it's becoming more and more impressive.


Roberto

Roberto,


Sorry that I could not respond earlier.
I just uploaded the average earnings/DD figures for the different trades performed on each ETF.
You can find then by clicking on the S&P500 sub-sectors.


Pascal

[roberto.giusto]

Pascal,

thanks for the figures, they will be very useful for future trades.

I have not allocated much money on this one anyway.


Roberto

[Wei]

Hi Pascal,

It looks like the stops for the XLX bots is not taking into consideration of the cluster info like IWM or GDX robot. Is that correct? (The gdx in the cluster table has a much wider stop than the GDX robot).

[Pascal]

Hi Pascal,

It looks like the stops for the XLX bots is not taking into consideration of the cluster info like IWM or GDX robot. Is that correct? (The gdx in the cluster table has a much wider stop than the GDX robot).

Yes, indeed, these stops on the XLX are only as "last defense line" stops.
The Robots have volatility linked trailing stops.
These XLX bots are only informing of the market direction. Of course, the RT system on each of these will be invaluably useful for more precise entries/exits.
We have already volatility adjusted trailing stops available in the model, but these have not been activated. They might become handy with the RT availability.


Pascal

[roberto.giusto]

..........

[roberto.giusto]

I've seen now the link to the table with the stops in the S&P500 section, I was looking for them in each XLX page.

Forget my suggestion in the previous post.

[xr-3609]

I just uploaded the average earnings/DD figures for the different trades performed on each ETF.
You can find then by clicking on the S&P500 sub-sectors.

Pascal

Pascal - these earnings/DD charts are great! They say a "picture is worth a thousand words" - these charts are worth a thousand Excel numbers!

greg

[Pascal]

Pascal - these earnings/DD charts are great! They say a "picture is worth a thousand words" - these charts are worth a thousand Excel numbers!

greg

Thanks Greg!

I added a column that states the number of days in the trade.

These figures can be used to decide on entering into a new trade or for monitoring an existing trade.
Let's take a few examples:

1. XLP shows a "Short" trade that finished day 2 with a loss of -0.3%. Past "Short" trades on XLP were not very good and hence, it might be good to avoid shorting XLP, while "Short Overbought" trades performed better for that ETF.

2. XLI closed its 8th day with a -1.6% loss, while in the past, we got a 1.5% profit. We can also see that past trades finished after day 11. This means that the probability for the trade to succeed is limited and it would be better to try finding an exit.

3. GDX: GDX "Bought" trades take a few days to develop, while "Bought Oversold" are successful much quicker. In our case, the RT was in "Bought Oversold" already since a few days and had had trouble moving up. If it does from here, the EOD GDX will also move fast I believe. Since we hit the Oversold level on an intraday base, it is difficult to know if we should look at the "bought" Figure or at the "Bought Oversold" Figure for GDX.

The future will tell us.


Pascal

[davidallison@gmail.com]

Pascal,

I agree with Greg. You must be congratulated on all your work. It will be interesting to see how the GDX trade works out. Would you have record of the GDX RT robot trades since we started?

Thanks,
Dave