Model discussion

[pdp-brugge]

Great!
Now the billion dollar question: when???
Just teasing...

[TraderD]

Great!
Now the billion dollar question: when???
Just teasing...

Why not now?

http://www.effectivevolume.com/conte...Real-Time-View

http://www.effectivevolume.com/content.php?1055-gdx-rt

Trader D

[pdp-brugge]

wow!
is this official?

[TraderD]

Hi Pascal,

GDX/RT MF dipped to -1.75% on 3/14 (intraday low price was $49.69). Since then MF is making higher highs with price making lower lows. MF just crossed 0% upward and price is slightly over the 3/14 intraday low. Would you interpret the entire period from 3/14 to now as accumulation by large players?

Trader D

[Pascal]

Hi Pascal,

GDX/RT MF dipped to -1.75% on 3/14 (intraday low price was $49.69). Since then MF is making higher highs with price making lower lows. MF just crossed 0% upward and price is slightly over the 3/14 intraday low. Would you interpret the entire period from 3/14 to now as accumulation by large players?

Trader D

Yes. I believe that these are deep pockets that accumulate for the longer term than most of us.

Pascal

[Billy]

Yes. I believe that these are deep pockets that accumulate for the longer term than most of us.

Pascal

I would also interpret that the MF detected “smart” large players starting to cover short positions from the 3/14 intraday oversold level and accumulating for LT positions yesterday and today with the cross over the average MF.
Billy

[TraderD]

Yes. I believe that these are deep pockets that accumulate for the longer term than most of us.
Pascal

Thanks, Pascal. That immediately begs the question - if the large players are gearing up their positions for a longer-term uptrend than our swing trading intent, wouldn't that subject us to more whipsaws and being knocked out of positions while the large players enjoy the luxury of optimizing their positions' average costs? What else could we possibly do to circumvent that?

Trader D

[Billy]

Thanks, Pascal. That immediately begs the question - if the large players are gearing up their positions for a longer-term uptrend than our swing trading intent, wouldn't that subject us to more whipsaws and being knocked out of positions while the large players enjoy the luxury of optimizing their positions' average costs? What else could we possibly do to circumvent that?

Trader D

Doron,
Why do you think it would be different this time? It always happens that way and the models have been developed with backtesting and statistical observation of the way it happened in the past. No model can be successful all of the time and some disappointing losing trades always come along the way. But objectivity for optimal LT performance forces us to follow the model rules to circumvent guessing or fearing subjective and emotional interpretations.
Billy

[TraderD]

Doron,
Why do you think it would be different this time? It always happens that way and the models have been developed with backtesting and statistical observation of the way it happened in the past. No model can be successful all of the time and some disappointing losing trades always come along the way. But objectivity for optimal LT performance forces us to follow the model rules to circumvent guessing or fearing subjective and emotional interpretations.
Billy

Billy, I'm with you on that one, of course. My question merely highlights the observation (made by Pascal) that the underlying theme the EV models follow have a longer perspective and simply "reacting faster" can back fire in the form of excess whipsaws. I'm not suggesting that there is a better solution, just that what's been done now is sub-optimal from a timeframe perspective. I hope that makes sense.

Trader D

[Billy]

Billy, I'm with you on that one, of course. My question merely highlights the observation (made by Pascal) that the underlying theme the EV models follow have a longer perspective and simply "reacting faster" can back fire in the form of excess whipsaws. I'm not suggesting that there is a better solution, just that what's been done now is sub-optimal from a timeframe perspective. I hope that makes sense.

Trader D

If you aim at longer term perspectives, it’s probably better to focus on the EOD robot and not to worry about its occasional divergences with the RT model which can be more “noisy” and “whipsawing”.
Billy