Neutral Day For GDX Money Flow - March 22,2012

[Billy]

The Precious Metals Sector Money Flow finished the day unchanged at -0.50% and closed 0.30% away from the average MF + porosity (+0.13%) threshold needed to trigger a long signal for the GDX robot. Even a stable Money Flow from now on could trigger the long signal soon because the average MF is declining by -0.10% a day.

With a neutral MF and yesterday’s Monthly S2 (50.09) key support unable to hold within a strong downtrend, I still view Monthly S3 (47.50) as the most logical final capitulation target for the month of March. Pre-market is pointing to a new gap down and it might revisit Tuesday’s lows around Weekly S1 (48.66). The two support clusters have a total strength of 9 equal to the first resistance cluster alone and many professional floor algorithms will take this into account in case of liquidity problems or a lack of bids from large players. But the RT long bias stays active and doesn’t show signs of a new selloff at this stage.

I am waiting in cash for the next episode. I have no intention to short and I am ready to buy back my long position on a confirmed buy signal.
Billy

[DJones]

Billy:

Confirming here: we've had the crossover. The RT is still long will remain so unless MF drops below the -0.42% average. Right?

The message on the RT page alternates between "buying" and "short". I'll ignore it - but I just want to confirm my understanding (above) since I am now (in Dave's words) "seriously long."

Tks

[Billy]

Billy:

Confirming here: we've had the crossover. The RT is still long will remain so unless MF drops below the -0.42% average. Right?

The message on the RT page alternates between "buying" and "short". I'll ignore it - but I just want to confirm my understanding (above) since I am now (in Dave's words) "seriously long."

Tks

Wrong. Still waiting for a cross of the porosity (+0.13%) above -0.42%. The buy signal is at -0.29%
But the average can decline intraday so that level can be lowered later on intraday.
Billy

[Billy]

Wrong. Still waiting for a cross of the porosity (+0.13%) above -0.42%. The buy signal is at -0.29%
But the average can decline intraday so that level can be lowered later on intraday.
Billy

And if a buy signal is triggered at the average + porosity, a short signal would be triggered if MF falls back below the average - porosity or currently -0.42-0.13= -0.55%.
Billy

[davidallison@gmail.com]

I guess the action of slowly drifting into this position perhaps might temper one’s enthusiasm for the ‘seriously long’ position. I’m watching for acceleration of Price and Money Flow, to offer a clue.

[pdp-brugge]

Billy,
Will there be an email send once the RT model detects a buy/sell?
Or do we have to monitor the RT graphs?

PdP

[Billy]

Billy,
Will there be an email send once the RT model detects a buy/sell?
Or do we have to monitor the RT graphs?

PdP

The email alert system is still under development.
And the RT model is already long, so there would be no RT signal except for a short alert.
Billy

[Billy]

Randgold (GOLD) is a large component of GDX and is down almost 12% on concerns after the Mali coup.
Without this surprise news, GDX might have triggered the buy signal already. But let's respect the model rules!
Billy

[Pascal]

The email alert system is still under development.
And the RT model is already long, so there would be no RT signal except for a short alert.
Billy

The RT system is now seting its messages to monitor the EOD status (Short).
Since we crossed above the average and are now slightly below, I will revert the system to monitoring the RT status, which was in a buy mode.


Pascal

[Pascal]

The RT system is now setting its messages to monitor the EOD status (Short).
Since we crossed above the average and are now slightly below, I will revert the system to monitoring the RT status, which was in a buy mode.


Pascal

OK. The RT shorting message is wrong. I'll revert the messages to monitoring the EOD signal and will review the error on the RT Message.


Pascal