Discretionary trading

[manucastle]

Discretionary trading.

We have had this discussion on several occasions but I feel I must raise it yet again.

Without doubt Pascal and Billy's daily comments have a strong influence on our trading because, naturally they are the originators of the system we are closely following and your comments will affect us psychologically.

Today, Pascal advised to trade lightly the Strong Short signal on GDX and also he will keep an eye on the GDX MF for better entry. Obviously, these are both discretionary decisions and IMHO will probably influence many of us here.

My question to Pascal and Billy - can you quantify that your discretionary trades add value to a completely mechanical approach too the Robots which you have shown to work well over the medium term ?

Thanks in advance for all you do but this is a very big question for us all. Thanks in advance

Trev.

[mingpan.lam]

Discretionary trading.

We have had this discussion on several occasions but I feel I must raise it yet again.

Without doubt Pascal and Billy's daily comments have a strong influence on our trading because, naturally they are the originators of the system we are closely following and your comments will affect us psychologically.

Today, Pascal advised to trade lightly the Strong Short signal on GDX and also he will keep an eye on the GDX MF for better entry. Obviously, these are both discretionary decisions and IMHO will probably influence many of us here.

My question to Pascal and Billy - can you quantify that your discretionary trades add value to a completely mechanical approach too the Robots which you have shown to work well over the medium term ?

Thanks in advance for all you do but this is a very big question for us all. Thanks in advance

Trev.

I am totally agreed with Trev.
I think something like, "suggest trade 25% of normal size" will be better than light volume if possible.

[Pascal]

Discretionary trading.

We have had this discussion on several occasions but I feel I must raise it yet again.

Without doubt Pascal and Billy's daily comments have a strong influence on our trading because, naturally they are the originators of the system we are closely following and your comments will affect us psychologically.

Today, Pascal advised to trade lightly the Strong Short signal on GDX and also he will keep an eye on the GDX MF for better entry. Obviously, these are both discretionary decisions and IMHO will probably influence many of us here.

My question to Pascal and Billy - can you quantify that your discretionary trades add value to a completely mechanical approach too the Robots which you have shown to work well over the medium term ?

Thanks in advance for all you do but this is a very big question for us all. Thanks in advance

Trev.

You are right Trev, I maybe should not have expressed my opinion on that trade.
I have nothing to back this opinion with, except my habit of trading longer-term signals than short-term potential reversals.



Pascal

[manucastle]

You are right Trev, I maybe should not have expressed my opinion on that trade.
I have nothing to back this opinion with, except my habit of trading longer-term signals than short-term potential reversals.



Pascal

Thanks for your quick reply Pascal :O)

Trev

[Billy]

Trev,

My policy is to trade ALL signals unleveraged. I want to duplicate at least exactly the robots' performance in my account. Even if I trade TZA or DUST , it will be only for the unleveraged position size amount that I am willing to risk unleveraged.
My discretionary decisions or recommendations only pertain to use and timing of leverage.
When the MF models are neutral like now, I feel more comfortable avoiding leverage, unless some other evidence emerges.
I will be shorting GDX with no leverage at the open today.

I've been busy with private matters and will post my daily comments a little later today.

Billy

[nickola.pazderic]

Have a look at this, please:

[JoeLo]

This is my two cents. I am a relatively new guy to EV so I have not been in on this discussion before. Forgive me if I repeat points that have been made in the past.
I can certainly understand the frustration of mixed signals, but I believe we have two kinds of resources on this site. One is the Robots or GGT or EV charts or any other mathematical resource that puts edges in our favor. The other resource is the insight and wisdom of some brilliant seasoned traders. The site would be worth a lot more than $18 per month if the only thing we got were Pascal and Billy’s comments. These comments also give us an edge.
I am concerned that we are shutting down a valuable edge. If Pascal doesn’t comment on his intuition about general market reasons to trade light or to say that he personally is not taking a signal, I think we all lose. I want that information. It tells me not to load the boat. On the other hand, if I want to just trade the robot signals, I could ignore the comments and trade mechanically.
My opinion, Joe

[Billy]

This is my two cents. I am a relatively new guy to EV so I have not been in on this discussion before. Forgive me if I repeat points that have been made in the past.
I can certainly understand the frustration of mixed signals, but I believe we have two kinds of resources on this site. One is the Robots or GGT or EV charts or any other mathematical resource that puts edges in our favor. The other resource is the insight and wisdom of some brilliant seasoned traders. The site would be worth a lot more than $18 per month if the only thing we got were Pascal and Billy’s comments. These comments also give us an edge.
I am concerned that we are shutting down a valuable edge. If Pascal doesn’t comment on his intuition about general market reasons to trade light or to say that he personally is not taking a signal, I think we all lose. I want that information. It tells me not to load the boat. On the other hand, if I want to just trade the robot signals, I could ignore the comments and trade mechanically.
My opinion, Joe

Joe,
The fact is that the GDX robot was designed one year ago before the availability of the RT Money Flow. Since the beta RT MF started in December, we have been working hard in filtering what new edges could be identified and used for design improvements.
And Pascal’s genius mind has already detected such new edges that are strong enough to completely envision a new approach, independently of the GDX robot signals. I am certain something revolutionary will come out of his work in progress. All I can say is that his discretionary decision to pass on this signal was much influenced by his recent RT discoveries. Be assured that they will be shared for the benefit of subscribers as always once he has achieved his research.
Billy

[Pascal]

Joe,
The fact is that the GDX robot was designed one year ago before the availability of the RT Money Flow. Since the beta RT MF started in December, we have been working hard in filtering what new edges could be identified and used for design improvements.
And Pascal’s genius mind has already detected such new edges that are strong enough to completely envision a new approach, independently of the GDX robot signals. I am certain something revolutionary will come out of his work in progress. All I can say is that his discretionary decision to pass on this signal was much influenced by his recent RT discoveries. Be assured that they will be shared for the benefit of subscribers as always once he has achieved his research.
Billy

I do not believe that we'll have anything "revolutionary". We are more in the fine tuning between the market/sector direction model and the statistical approach of the robots. We now have the RT directional model and an EOD Robot model based on a statistical approach. The robots need the directional models, but the directional models do not need the robots. So, this is a weakness in the robots, especially in regards to the much improved GDX MF (a model that auto-adapts to the volatility level.) The robots have two advantages: the reversal to the mean (ST edge) that is inexistent in the directional model and the pivots (for the IWM robot.) This is what makes the fine tuning so difficult because environment dependent and we can only define the environment in hindsight.

Finally, we might need to include Bob's RT liquidity indicator earlier than previously thought.

By the way, we opened the RT access to all dual subscribers. Explanatory private e-mail will follow.


Pascal

[vin]

Hi Pascal

I am a dual robot subscriber and would like to know how to get access to RT data? The link under robot still gives me a message regarding restricted access.
Thanks in advance.

Vin