5 days of strong MF accumulation

[Pascal]

Since August 2007, we had 38 occurrences with 5 days continuous strong MF accumulation.

In general the following days have been positive, especially after March 2009.

This gives the following trading strategy:

- If you sell on strength now, you have 50% of chance to get a pull-back on Monday and cheaper prices.
- If after 3 days (Wednesday) we have not gained 0.5% on the S&P500, this would be a rather negative sign statistically.




Pascal

[grems8544]

Thanks Pascal.

Is it possible to plot 1 std dev error bars on D1, D2, for each of the series?

Thanks,

pgd

[Pascal]

Thanks Pascal.

Is it possible to plot 1 std dev error bars on D1, D2, for each of the series?

Thanks,

pgd

I do not find Std Dev very useful since these series are not real trades.
In real trades, you would stop out of losing positions.

I however find the ratio of positive/negative trades more interesting.
This ratio says that if we are still in a liquidity driven market, then the probabilities for a continuing up-trend are high.



Pascal

[barbados11]

Pascal,

Since we had a holiday yesterday, wouldn't the third day be Thursday?

Thanks,

Pablo

Since August 2007, we had 38 occurrences with 5 days continuous strong MF accumulation.

In general the following days have been positive, especially after March 2009.

This gives the following trading strategy:

- If you sell on strength now, you have 50% of chance to get a pull-back on Monday and cheaper prices.
- If after 3 days (Wednesday) we have not gained 0.5% on the S&P500, this would be a rather negative sign statistically.

Attachment 9124


Pascal

[Billy]

Pascal,

Since we had a holiday yesterday, wouldn't the third day be Thursday?

Thanks,

Pablo

Yes Pablo, very judicious remark and I think you are correct.
Billy

[asomani]

Let's see if the SPX can make a push today, the third day. So far it is up just ~0.04% since Friday's close.

Also, worth noting that D3 (day 4?) is typically down, according to Pascal's diagram.

[asomani]

Wow...quite the push today. I guess the push came...!