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Multi-Pivots and Gap Up for June 21, 2011
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Today all indices might gap up. IWM, SPY and GDX are all in a strongly bullish cluster outlook while QQQ remains very bearish but improving.
The GDX robot is now offering a relatively strong buy signal in terms of LT/ST probabilities. The setup has not changed much from yesterday and there is a very comfortable initial support at the confluence of WS1 (50.70) and SS1 (50.64) just below our entry limit price of 51.57. The strong second resistance cluster should encourage you not to chase any gap up and buy at the robot limit instead to improve your reward-risk ratio.
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For IWM, at the time of writing, pre-market points to a possible +0.60% gap up above WS1 (79.53) and QS1 (79.32). This is the level where last week’s Tuesday’s bounce failed on the next day. A close today and an opening tomorrow above QS1 would be the most ideal positive scenario for the robot’s position. The second resistance cluster is looking more sturdy, but a close above WR2 (80.83) could be the first step in a break-out attempt.
IWM left the daily strong decline daily sub-stage yesterday and is now in weakening decline.
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SPY is in an even more bullish cluster pattern with the first support cluster being twice as strong as the first resistance cluster.
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QQQ remains a laggard and the first resistance cluster is really ominous, but the successful support from MS3 (53.90) is beginning to confirm that the sell programs may be temporarily turned off for this month’s timeframe. The launch of buy programs remains to be seen however.
Billy
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Volume Correlation Analysis
A volume correlation analysis of the ES, SPY and Cash S&P 500 is attached. For intraday, there is no reported cash volume.
We can see on the daily time frame, volume correlation of the ES and SPY to Cash was much higher in the past than now. This adds evidence that reported volume for Cash is suspect.
On the intraday (over the last year), we see on the 30 minute, correlation between the ES and SPY was high (.89), while on the 5 minute it was very low (0.25). The latter is not surprising because the average daily SPY volume is about 100 x higher, so differences will be magnified on very short time frames.
All I can tell you is what works for me on the very short intraday time frames. Market Profile scales to any time frame, but is geared more toward showing supply and demand areas, not indicating likely directional movements. It's possible some simple form of volume analysis can still provide an edge, such as OBV, but I suspect it is materially less so than in years past.