+511 Club & +80 RS

Hi-

I am a full-time trader living in Sterling, VA.

I am going to start sharing my work with you guys.

I have learned a lot from Billy, Mike Scott, and Pascal over the years. Now, its time to pay it forward.

I spent 100's of hours last year writing code, which is not my specialty, to implement the Effective Volume concepts, as outlined in Pascal's book, in TradeStation (TS) in the application called RadarScreen (RS).

I now trade on Daily and 1-min time frames.. thanks Pascal !

I took STZ from last summer, as pointed out by Pascal, as my model of steady, institutional accumulation.

I compute LEV across 20d's and focus on 2d, 5d, 10d, 15d & 20d sums. If each of these is progressing smoothly higher, i.e. 20d > 15d > 10d > 5d > 2d then that stocks scores the maximum.. My s/w calls that +511, and that is the +511 club... -511 is bad..

Each month I form a list of names that is based on price and volume cuts, in Mar I am looking at about 2400 names. Each weekend, I cull that list into 8 files of about 120 names, and I watch these like a hawk during the trading day. IMO - the very best set-ups in the market are the +511 with IBD RS ratings of +80 or higher.

I propose to share that select list with you guys everyday..

If I do not have feedback that you want me to continue this, then on May 1st .. I will stop posting.

All my best,

Shawn

Thank you Shawn.

Your work is very interesting and I will keep an eye on these stocks.
Every day could be hard to continue. You might do that maybe twice a week so that the burden is not too heavy.



Pascal

Shawn; Thank you for so generously sharing your list. I popped them into HGSI to see if any of them look ripe for a move this week. REGN caught my attention.
I don't know if you use HGSI so I will explain the 3 gifs.

There is a 17 dma Bollinger Band squeeze or compression of the BB. This view is created by having a 17 dma on the chart with 17P BB varying from 0.5 to 3.29 std dev. A BB squeeze usually precedes significant movement of price. Coming out of the squeeze the initial direction of price frequently can be a head fake in the opposite direction of the real move.

The MMA (multiple moving average) chart has short, intermediate and longer range MAs. The short are green, intermediate blue and longer term red. Convergence of moving averages is similar to compression of a coil. When energy is released it can be powerful. Look at its move in December 2011.

Both of these charts suggest that the REGN spring is set. There is no way to predict price direction, but once unleashed it will probably be strong. I would move this one near the top of the list.

Best regards,
Robert

REGN volume has also quieted down. ADV from 10-50 days varies from 500K-745K. Last 3 days are
369K, 416K, 277K. Another sign of ripeness.
Robert

Hi-

I look through this list to find the very best, and on top of that, IMO this market is on the edge of a sell signal, so I want to be super-picky on names and entries.. this is not Jan 2013 or Fall 2010.. or Spring 2009..

I have been watching REGN for sometime - IMO, tomorrow its probably not the day .. thinking it needs time..

My best pivot ideas for trading tomorrow:

CELG, HW, AEGR & CCOI - not all of these may be in the list I posted, but they were on Th or Fri morning.. (we need to follow these names for a few days..)

Also, I live on my profits and losses, and I am strongly inclined not to trade tomorrow b/c I do not see the market as providing wind at our back.. I determine this by mostly looking at the 5d and 10d up and down volume on $NYA and $COMPQ - and only entering new trades when its all green (I cheat sometimes, e.g. I had a little to FNGN on Fri when things were about like there are right now for ) . Right now, I am about 15% invested..

If the market power trends tomorrow, of course, I am going to go long the best set-ups hard. So, I try not to predict. When I am at my best, I react..

Thanks for responding,

Shawn

[QUOTE=shawn_molodow;25236]Hi-

I look through this list to find the very best, and on top of that, IMO this market is on the edge of a sell signal, so I want to be super-picky on names and entries.. this is not Jan 2013 or Fall 2010.. or Spring 2009..

I have been watching REGN for sometime - IMO, tomorrow its probably not the day .. thinking it needs time..

My best pivot ideas for trading tomorrow:

CELG, HW, AEGR & CCOI - not all of these may be in the list I posted, but they were on Th or Fri morning.. (we need to follow these names for a few days..)

Also, I live on my profits and losses, and I am strongly inclined not to trade tomorrow b/c I do not see the market as providing wind at our back.. I determine this by mostly looking at the 5d and 10d up and down volume on $NYA and $COMPQ - and only entering new trades when its all green (I cheat sometimes, e.g. I had a little to FNGN on Fri when things were about like there are right now for ) . Right now, I am about 15% invested..

If the market power trends tomorrow, of course, I am going to go long the best set-ups hard. So, I try not to predict. When I am at my best, I react..

Thanks for responding,

Shawn[/QUOTE]

I see REGN as a fifth stage base with three high volume sell off weeks and no high volume up weeks in the base. Bollinger squeezes don't predict the direction of the next move.

Hi-

I am going to post the longer list of +511 names, 114 names for tomorrow.

Along with the culling only the names with RS +80, 41 names for tomorrow.

Take care,

Shawn

Hi-

120 names in the +511 Club for Wed, and 44 that are +80 RS.[ATTACH]17777[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17778[/ATTACH]

Remember that a TS Plug-In is available from Pascal if you would like to see the LEV, SEV, & TEV w/ TradeStation.

Also, I believe Frank Tiberia is still making TS available at no charge with a few thousand in an account.

I am struggling with replying to some of the private messages, so its easiest for me if you would directly email me at [email]shawn_molodow@hotmail.com[/email]

Thanks,

Shawn[ATTACH]17777[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17778[/ATTACH]

Here are the files:[ATTACH]17802[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17803[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH]17819[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17818[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17818[/ATTACH]

Hi-

Here are the files.

Shawn[ATTACH]17830[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17831[/ATTACH]

Hi-

Here are the names.

Shawn[ATTACH]17856[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17857[/ATTACH]

Hi-

Lowest number of names in both lists to date.

Take care,

Shawn[ATTACH]17873[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17874[/ATTACH]

Hi-

[ATTACH]17878[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17879[/ATTACH]

Hi-

I have consolidated the information into a single .xls. Also, added a tab on -511 given market conditions.[ATTACH]17934[/ATTACH]

Take care,

Shawn

Hi-

Here are the lists.

Shawn[ATTACH]17937[/ATTACH]

Hi-

Just a quick word on how I use this information.

I try to confine my purchases to the RS +90 names (3rd tab) and then only when 5d & 10d Up/Down volume on $COMPQ and $NYA are positive, and I moderate overall exposure using the the MEM techniques outlined by Mike Scott.

The last few days, the RS +90 names have been doing well, so I took several very small position near the close today. My MEM count on $SPX is showing the buy signal still on (whilest $COMPQ is off), and we just about go tall green on the Up/Down Vol.. $COMPQ - when I took my positions, this looked like it was likely to close all green.

I took test positions in AIMC, ETH, GILD, GMCR, GNRC, HES, NPSP, PTEN, SNE, SIG, TMH, TRLA.

If the market continues to improve and these names hold-up, I will add a more at the close tomorrow[ATTACH]17953[/ATTACH][ATTACH]17954[/ATTACH].

Take care,

Shawn

Hi-

I am using the +90 RS list as current market leaders, and when they are up, I am feeling buoyant about the market.

From yesterday's note and my test positions, we see

NPSP +7.0%
AIMC +5.4%
TRLA +3.4%
GMCR +3.3%
PTEN +3.0%
GILD +3.0%
SIG +0.9%
SNE +0.8%
TMH +0.6%
GNRC +0.1%
ETH +0.1%

and 1 negative: HES -0.5% .

11 of 12 positive, and 6 of 12 +3.0%.. makes me feel bullish.

Of course, we have an IBD FTD on $COMPQX today as well.

Good luck all,

Shawn

[QUOTE=shawn_molodow;25399]Hi-

I am using the +90 RS list as current market leaders, and when they are up, I am feeling buoyant about the market.

From yesterday's note and my test positions, we see

NPSP +7.0%
AIMC +5.4%
TRLA +3.4%
GMCR +3.3%
PTEN +3.0%
GILD +3.0%
SIG +0.9%
SNE +0.8%
TMH +0.6%
GNRC +0.1%
ETH +0.1%

and 1 negative: HES -0.5% .

11 of 12 positive, and 6 of 12 +3.0%.. makes me feel bullish.

Of course, we have an IBD FTD on $COMPQX today as well.

Good luck all,

Shawn[/QUOTE]

Good work Shawn!!


Pascal

Hi-

+511 & 90 RS names held up well today.

Nice call by Pascal on PTEN, and HES was barely down.[ATTACH]17985[/ATTACH]

Take care,

Shawn

Hi-

I have re-ran a search on the MarketSmith database for names > $7.00 and 100K vol. This gave almost 3,000 names. I then delete names that have zero vol in more than 1/2 of their 1-min bars over 50 days - this took the file down to about 2,700 names. The prior file had 2,400 names.

I have been publishing the # of names in the +511 Club category and +80 RS, and accordingly, the numbers will be a little skewed based on starting with about +12% more names than previously. I believe the # is secondary indicator of direction, what's most important is to look at the names and find good entries on the strongest names - RS +90, and the increase in file size may suggested a few more strong names to look at.

Take care,
[ATTACH]18001[/ATTACH]
Shawn

Hi-

Most CANSLIM-style traders suggest that one first and foremost focus on the leaders. Which causes many to ask -which names are the leaders? I use the the +90 names from the +511 Club as my leaders. These names shift some on a day-to-day basis with names coming on and off the list on a particular day, but everyday, I put these 10-20 names into a watch list to see how they perform throughout the day. To me, that is focusing on the leaders and its relatively objective.

Last Friday morning, all the +90 RS Names were Red for most of the morning, and I was concerned and started selling the weaker names and reducing. Around noon on Fri, the market turned to the upside, and I added some back on. By EOD, the +90 names were about equally split between red & green - IMO, this was borderline unacceptable price action from leading names.

Today, all the +90 names opened red (except LIFE) and increased losses throughout the day. In particular, 16 of 20 +90 RS names were down more than 2%, and 8 of 20 were down more than 4%. I view this as very negative price action by the leaders.

I am about 25% long, but prepared for more downside in the days ahead.

Take care,[ATTACH]18008[/ATTACH]

Shawn

Shawn,

Thanks for sharing your analyses.

[ATTACH]18024[/ATTACH]Hi-

Today's results showed good leadership (yesterday's +511 Cub & RS +90):

BLMN 4.83%
RYAAY 2.71%
GILD 2.70%
SNTA 2.57%
TRLA 2.32%
AMGN 2.18%
AIMC 1.94%
ADBE 1.52%
DGI 1.45%
TMH 0.92%
GNRC 0.43%

Shawn

Hi-

All 14 leaders (+511 Club & RS +90) finish negative. Not bullish.

GILD -0.31%
SSI -0.32%
AIMC -0.35%
TMH -0.69%
SNTA -0.80%
ADBE -0.84%
WAG -1.04%
TRLA -1.11%
NWS -1.17%
DGI -1.39%
GNRC -1.59%
EPL -1.91%
BLMN -3.44%
NCS -5.06%


Shawn

[ATTACH]18038[/ATTACH]

Shawn; I really appreciate your posting the lists and the day's results as it really provides insight into the market seeing how a dynamic list of leaders is doing.
Great work and thank you.
Best regards,
Robert

Thanks Robert!

Another poor day for the leaders (+90 RS members of the +511 Club), 9 of 11 were Red:

TSLA 3.41%
EPL 1.32%
CHH -0.11%
EXAM -0.28%
ADBE -0.57%
TMH -1.14%
BLMN -1.16%
RYAAY -1.22%
NWS -1.86%
OSK -2.34%
GILD -2.39%

Shawn

[ATTACH]18055[/ATTACH]

Shawn,


Great work! Thank you!

How much is your list of leading stocks overlapping that of "Stocktwits 50?"

[url]http://stocktwits50.com/[/url]

It might be interesting to have a weekly list of leading stocks and see if this fixed list is doing better or worst than the market, during a fixed period of time such as one week, 10 days or 20 days.

Thanks



Pascal

Hi Pascal,

I have been running screens on the IBD 50 and ST50 for sometime now.

ST50 updates each weekend, I think IBD 50 may also be updated mid-week as well. I compile my merged list on the weekend. For this week, the merged list is 93.. so there were 7 names that over-lapped, I would guess there are between 5-15 names each week that overlap on these lists.

These list themselves change every week, or maybe even twice a week in the case of IBD 50. My list changes each day.

A more static list would be Jerry Samet's index components.. which maybe changes every 3-6 months..

Suggestions from the broader group are welcome.

Let me think about what might be useful for the group, look over any feedback and get back to you,

Shawn

Hi-

Here is how the 7 leaders from the last post did on Fri:

SSI 2.36%
RYAAY 0.69%
ADBE 0.65%
CHH 0.33%
TRLA -0.54%
TMH -0.71%
EPL -2.06%

I do not consider this constructive price action from leaders, even though an equal weighting across the 7 names would have shown a gain.

Also, note the MEM models for both $SPX and $COMPQ have turned off their buy switch last week; so, NO new buys for me.

My exposure is about 6% net long on leaders (GILD, TRLA, LIFE, TSLA, a few others) - These are small test positions that I did not sell when the Buy Switches went Off. I also have another 6% in a few dividend ETF payers (REM, EMLP, CHI) which are less volatile and I am holding for some yield.

I will continue to publish the .xls of +511 Club so we can see which names attract institutional buying and show the best RS during this corrective phase - these leaders usually (but, not always) turn-up a couple of weeks prior to the market bottoming. Thus, we can be best prepared for when the market conditions become favorable.

Shawn

[ATTACH]18090[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH]18095[/ATTACH]Hi-

Here is how the 17 leaders from the last post did today:

4.93 TSLA
2.47 WRLD
2.46 OMX
1.65 GILD
1.42 COR
1.00 THRX
0.93 CHH
0.75 LAMR
0.74 WAG
0.53 EPL
0.52 HEES
-0.02 TM
-0.6 SSI
-0.8 SWFT
-0.82 SPNC
-0.85 DGI
-1.43 AMWD

These leader daily results (# of gainers vs # of losers and gainer % vs loser %) are more typical of an uptrend.

Shawn

[ATTACH]18096[/ATTACH]

Hi-

Today's results for leaders posted yesterday:

EPL 5.57%
RYL 5.24%
ANAC 2.57%
SMP 1.96%
ONXX 1.48%
MTZ 1.44%
TRLA 1.30%
DGI 1.26%
CHH 0.93%
SSI 0.57%
GRFS 0.37%
ATLS 0.33%
PERI -2.61%

Solid leader results here (12 of 13 pos and avg gain +1.57%)

Shawn

[ATTACH]18106[/ATTACH]

Hi-

Here is how the LEV Leaders from yesterday's post fared today:

GPOR = 4.32%
SSI = 1.88%
EPL = 1.79%
MTZ = 1.56%
WAL = -0.55%
RYAAY = -1.38%
NWS = -1.70%
ONXX = -4.22%

4 of 8 winners and overall avg gain for today = +0.21%

This is borderline acceptable performance b/c the indexes were mixed today (IWM up, DIA down, QQQ flat).

I started tracking the avg daily performance of the LEV Leaders on Apr 16, and since then the avg performance across all names and all days is +0.40%.

Shawn

[ATTACH]18121[/ATTACH]

Shawn; Thank you. I love your nightly Market MRI. You've tapped into the pulse of the market.
Best regards,
Robert

Thanks Robert!

Your encouragement lets me know that this work is useful to others.

The LEV Leaders posted last night performed today as follows:

RYL 7.79%
WAGE 3.31%
TSLA 3.11%
SSI 1.11%
WAL 0.69%
AMWD 0.65%
EXAM 0.00%
HEES -0.15%
RAS -0.81%
EPL -1.04%
CBM -1.31%

6 winners, 1 draw and 4 losers; avg gain across 11 names was +1.21%.

The LEV Leaders performed well today, especially when compared to QQQ's @ +0.53% and IWM @ +0.65%; this shows that the LEV Leaders are leading, and I view that as constructive.

The avg next day gains for each day posted in this thread is +0.50% per day

This is the avg of the avg gain % each day; no special weighting to account for more/less names on a particular day - just assumes the whole account is spread across all the names equally each day.

The attached .xls was only able to locate 4 LEV Leaders for tomorrow, I am not sure what, if anything, this pointing at.

Take care,

Shawn[ATTACH]18140[/ATTACH]

PS: I am updating this post b/c someone reached out and shared the following with me re: the long list of +511 Club members:

@ RS 89:

1. FSL
2. LAMR
3. PCS
4. CBRL
5. PFPT
6. AOS

88:
SPF
EXAM

My Opinion: I have noticed some super moves over the last week or so: 1st from the bios's and pharms (GILD, BIIB, CELG, GSK, etc..) - the bio's pulled back over the last couple of days from unsustainable moves, and then a couple of days ago: NFLX, etc.. yesterday.. and then today.. lots of explosive moves (e.g. STMP, NXST, ANGI, NOW, AMBA, etc.) ... so, IMO... the RS bar has been raised considerably in the last week.

HI Shawn,

I appreciate these daily postings also. Haven't personally started using yet, but hope to in the next month or two!

Harry

Hi-

Harry, thanks for the words of encouragement.

The 4 LEV Leaders for Fri performed as follows:

HEES 0.41%
JCOM -0.27%
NOW -2.01%
NNI -2.02%

1 out of 4 was a winner, and avg gain was -0.97%.

The overall avg since Apr 16 is now: +0.33

These are the *official* stats and would usually cause me some concern, but I was also tracking the near miss names that I posted on Th. They performed better:

FSL 7.97%
PFPT 5.16%
SPF 2.93%
AOS 0.90%
PCS -0.50%
CBRL -0.74%
EXAM -0.94%
LAMR -1.08%

These names averaged +1.71%. I am not going to include these #'s in the on-going stat's b/c although they did not meet the LEV Leader definition: they were only at RS +89 and +88 on Th night. But, I do look at this as providing evidence of more constructive forces at work in the market than I would have taken from the 4 LEV Leaders.

There are 12 LEV Leaders in the attached .xls for us to look at on Mon, and I feel that 12 names (vs 4) will provide a more representative view of the market.

Take care,

Shaawn
[ATTACH]18152[/ATTACH]

Hi-

The results from last Fri:

ILMN 2.84%
HEES 2.50%
LNC 1.11%
TM 0.91%
ISIS 0.66%
AMWD 0.27%
BKS 0.16%
RYL -0.40%
FSL -0.70%
ALKS -0.76%
TSN -0.88%
WAGE -1.17%

Constructive price action from the LEV Leaders, 7 of 12 winners, avg again 0.38%, and overall avg for all days 0.34%

Shawn

[ATTACH]18157[/ATTACH]

Hi-

Mon's LEV Leaders performed as follows:

LNKD 2.03%
LNC 1.10%
SBGI 0.41%
ELLI 0.39%
JCOM 0.22%
PERI -0.06%
BKS -0.28%
USNA -0.46%
DGI -0.55%
FSL -0.83%
TMH -1.24%
RJET -2.78%

5 out of 12 winners, and avg gain is -0.17%. Avg gain on all day & names is +0.29%.

Today's price action was not acceptable for LEV Leaders; puts us on-guard for tomorrow.

Take care,

Shawn

[ATTACH]18183[/ATTACH]

Hi:

I guess yesterday's post showing poor performance from LEV Leaders was telegraphing today's market action (despite decent gains on Tu across the indexes and some favorable MEM signals).

Much poorer performance today from yesterday's LEV Leaders:

SBGI 2.87%
PNK 2.36%
THRX -0.27%
SPF -0.88%
CBRL -0.88%
SPRD -1.60%
ILMN -1.36%
DAL -1.75%
MEI -5.42%
FSL -5.43%
NCS -7.48%

2 out of 11 gainers, avg across the 11 was -1.80% (now the overall avg is +0.12%)

I consider this to be clearly negative action, and a warning sign.

Take care,

Shawn