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Update for May 21, 2012
[U]Status MFs:
[/U]The VStpro model is still LONG since April 25.
The 20DMF model is still SHORT since May 4.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF remains in CASH due to the conflict between the two models.
The PM MF is LONG since May 17.
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I will remain in cash for now.
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The odds of the VSTpro to go SHORT are very small due to the distance between the close of yesterday and the MA. We need a high above that MA for a trigger.
The odds that the 20DMF goes LONG or in protected CASH mode (OB/OS below -90) are looking better.
If the 20DMF goes indeed back to CASH (or LONG) and the trigger is not set for the VSTpro to go SHORT, then the Combo-MF will go LONG again.
[U]Disclaimer[/U]: this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
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Update for May 22, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is still LONG since April 25.
The 20DMF model has gone LONG yesterday.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is now again LONG.
The PM MF is LONG since May 17.
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I will today open new long trades in TQQQ and UYM.
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The odds of the VSTpro to go SHORT are still small due to the distance between the close of yesterday and the MA. We need a high above that MA for a trigger.
The 20DMF has gone LONG yesterday. This signal will be cancelled if the OS goes below -90 again. When this happens (and the VSTpro did not trigger a SHORT signal) the Combo-MF will stay LONG.
[U]Disclaimer[/U]: this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
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Pdp,
Why didn't you buy NUGT when the GDX RT MF issued a buy signal (few days ago) ?
Since then, the GDX climbed around 8%.
Yakov.
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Hi Yakov,
Fear - Fear - Fear - that is the only reason.
In the first week of May, I suffered three stop-losses in a row. These had a very serieus impact on my account. I suffered a drawdown of nearly 13%. To me that was a circuitbreaker. I had to take a break away from the markets.
In the meanwhile I have been working on a better position-sizing strategy. One of these days I am going to publish it.
Thanks for the question.
PdP
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Update for May 23, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is still LONG since April 25.
The 20DMF model is LONG since May 21.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is LONG.
The PM MF is LONG since May 17.
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I have long positions long in TQQQ and UYM. I will today open a new trade long UXI.
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The odds of the VSTpro to go SHORT are growing. The distance between the close of yesterday and the MA is getting smaller. We need a high above that MA for a trigger.
The 20DMF is still LONG. This signal will be cancelled if the OS goes again below -90. When this happens (and the VSTpro did not trigger a SHORT signal) the Combo-MF will stay LONG.
[U]Disclaimer[/U]: this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
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Update for May 24, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is LONG since April 25.
The 20DMF model is LONG since May 21.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is still LONG.
The PM MF is LONG since May 17.
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I have long positions long in TQQQ, UXI and UYM.
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The odds of the VSTpro to go SHORT are still growing. The distance between the close of yesterday and the MA is still getting smaller. One of the conditions for the VSTpro to trigger a SHORT signal is a high above that MA next to a close below the open.
The 20DMF is still LONG. This signal will be cancelled if the OS goes again below -70. When this happens (and the VSTpro did not trigger a SHORT signal) the Combo-MF will stay LONG.
[U]Disclaimer[/U]: this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
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Update for May 25, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is LONG since April 25.
The 20DMF model is LONG since May 21.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is still LONG.
The PM MF is LONG since May 17.
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I have long positions long in TQQQ, UXI and UYM.
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The odds of the VSTpro to go SHORT are still growing. The distance between the close of yesterday and the MA is still getting smaller. One of the conditions for the VSTpro to trigger a SHORT signal is a high above that MA next to a close below the open.
The 20DMF is still LONG. This signal will be cancelled if the OS goes again below -70. When this happens (and the VSTpro did not trigger a SHORT signal) the Combo-MF will stay LONG.
[U]Disclaimer[/U]: this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
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Update for May 29, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is LONG since April 25.
The 20DMF model is LONG since May 21.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is still LONG.
The PM MF is LONG since May 17.
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I have long positions long in TQQQ, UXI and UYM.
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The odds of the VSTpro to go SHORT are still growing. The distance between the close of Friday and the MA is still getting smaller. One of the conditions for the VSTpro to trigger a SHORT signal is a high above that MA next to a close below the open.
The 20DMF is still LONG. This signal will be cancelled if the OS goes again below -70. When this happens (and the VSTpro did not trigger a SHORT signal) the Combo-MF will stay LONG. If the 20DMF signals a SHORT and the VSTpro stays LONG, than the Combo-MF will go to CASH.
[U]Disclaimer[/U]: this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
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Dear Pascal,
I would like to ask you how you tried to get 4 years and a half of data to backtest your strategy, in the site the data are only available day by day.
Thank you and great work.
Giuseppe
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[QUOTE=gibasse;22509]Dear Pascal,
I would like to ask you how you tried to get 4 years and a half of data to backtest your strategy, in the site the data are only available day by day.
Thank you and great work.
Giuseppe[/QUOTE]
It is because we have historical minute data available for all the stocks.
A reliable back-test can only start from July 2007, when the uptick shorting rule was abolished. So, this makes about 4.5 years of reliable data.
I also supplied the 20DMF data to PDP.
Pascal