The VSTpro has a LONG signal since yesterday. This has turned the Combo-MF to CASH because of the conflict between the VSTpro and the 20DMF signals. Since the 14SMA is rising, a new SHORT signal for the VSTpro is not possible today.
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The VSTpro has a LONG signal since yesterday. This has turned the Combo-MF to CASH because of the conflict between the VSTpro and the 20DMF signals. Since the 14SMA is rising, a new SHORT signal for the VSTpro is not possible today.
The 20DMF is in CASH since yesterday. The Combo-MF will now follow the VSTpro LONG signal.
The XLF model goes gone to CASH. The XLI model has a BOUGHT signal.
I will close the SHORT trades for the XLF, XLI, XLK and XLY models.
I will open a new LONG trade in TQQQ.
As clearly indicated with the low Kelly and the high NoFear, my strategy is performing very poor (for now).
The XLB model has signaled a BOUGHT signal yesterday.
The 20DMF has a Short signal since the close of last Friday. This means that the Combo-MF will go to CASH.
The XLF model has a Shorted Overbought signal.
The trade signals from my strategy are mixed: XLB & XLI both LONG while XLF, XLK and XLY are SHORT.
I think this gives me a hedge situation to keep me floating through these rough waters.
No changes
pdp-brugge,
20DMF moved back to cash today, not short as you have listed? Are you making a subjective call?
Harry
Harry,
Thanks for noticing this!
I suppose I was not already awake this morning when I looked at the 20DMF.
You are right: the 20DMF is neutral again since the close of yesterday.
This changes a lot!
The Combo-MF goes back to LONG.
I will not follow the signals from the XLF, XLI, XLK and XLY models because of their poor statistical performances learned from my back-tests.
No changes
[QUOTE=pdp-brugge;23971]No changes[/QUOTE]
Hi PdP,
Seems strange the VSTPro signal is long in this current market ?
Trev
Trev,
I know and it is somewhat frustrating.
Last Friday, the S&P500 turned down very fast while the 14SMA was not going downwards for at least two days. There have been other occasions in the past where the same thing happened. May 4, 2012 serves as an example. At that time, the 20DMF caught the down-move and went short. Last Friday, the 20DMF also signaled a short signal. This short signal was however cancelled this Monday.
There are several possibilities for adapting the VSTpro formula to try catching these fast moves down. I have tried to adapt the VSTpro formula to obtain better results, all with poorer results when I perform my back-tests.
In the broader picture, I have come to the conclusion that the combining of the VSTpro signals with the 20DMF EOD signals is still the best model.
There have been, according to my back-tests, similar periods in time where the performance of the Combo-MF model was not so good. None however so long as the one we are in now.
In the mean time, I am waiting for times to change.
I am waiting very eager on Pascal's detailed back-tests results for the new 20DMF RT model.
PdP