+511 Club & +80 RS

Hi-

Some of you guys have reached out and asked about my routine, set-up, etc..

Here is a quick picture of my command center: [ATTACH=CONFIG]18214[/ATTACH]

Each of the monitors are 23.6 in Acer or Asus, and cost <$150 USD or less (on Newegg). The supports are from Tyke Supply (< $100). The Ikea desk is old & of zero commercial value. The laptops are an i5 HP (<$600 6/2012) and Asus i3 freebie (check slickdeals.com), and $1400 desktop (ebay vendor) running the 4 monitors with an over-clocked i7 and 32 GB Ram. Everything, was about $3K. TS is free, and I am trying to get off Qcharts which is $150 per month. IB is my primary broker and TS & Fidelity are back-up w/ the Fidelity commission-free ETF's.

BTW - I always have the EV Site up.. I am always hard-staring the 20DMF.

Ok, on to the market: today was good:

TXI 4.08%
DAL 3.86%
HEES 2.87%
WBMD 2.78%
ILMN 1.77%
PPC 1.00%
TSN 0.98%
HHC 0.60%
EXAM 0.37%

9 of 9 winners, and avg gain 2.03% - overall avg: +0.27%

Secret sauce for you guys who have actually read this far... put these LEV leader names on a special watch list, and if they are not the day's tell w/n the first 10-15 min.. then its going to be a down-day (if they are down) and up day (if they are up)[ATTACH]18215[/ATTACH]- 1st one to proof me wrong on this gets a free dinner at Dante's in Great Falls, VA - on me..

All my best,

Shawn

Hi-

LNKD in was a LEV Leader on Fri, that hurt..

HEES 5.48%
CREE 3.36%
DGI 1.64%
LAMR 0.52%
RJET 0.18%
CYH -0.98%
SPF -3.22%
YELP -3.48%
LNKD -13.07%

5 of 9 winners, avg -1.06%

Shawn

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Hi-

The results today were:

AXL 4.04%
HEES 3.52%
TLLP 2.43%
ILMN 2.03%
EXH 1.94%
GWRE 1.14%
JCOM 1.01%
CX 0.50%
SSNC -0.05%
ARNA -1.44%
YELP -1.38%
THRX -3.24%

8 of 12 winners, and avg gain of +0.88%

Shawn

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Shawn, since your lists are calculated and published after the close, it could make sense not to include the opening gaps in each stock's calculated return.

Also, wouldn't it be interesting to set a weekly list and see the return for a five days period?
That way, you avoid the day-trading difficulty and you can see whether the stock can be in general held for a few days.


Pascal

This is really great stuff and much appreciated!



[QUOTE=Pascal;25599]Shawn, since your lists are calculated and published after the close, it could make sense not to include the opening gaps in each stock's calculated return.

Also, wouldn't it be interesting to set a weekly list and see the return for a five days period?
That way, you avoid the day-trading difficulty and you can see whether the stock can be in general held for a few days.


Pascal[/QUOTE]

Hi-

Interesting day, another earnings hit to FSLR resulted in a significant decline.

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5 of 9 winners, and avg was -0.62% from close-close and -0.782% from open-close.

Shawn


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Hi:

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5 out of 10 winners, avg gain close-close was +0.56% and open-close gain was +1.16%


Take care,

Shawn

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Hi-

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I seldom hold a full position through earnings, and occasionally I will only take 1/2 off rather than sell out before earnings, and thereby roll the dice if I really like the name, e.g. I sold 100% of my LNKD before the earnings call (luck, for sure) and I held JCOM small through earnings (luckily, I got out really quickly this AM).

As I watch the earnings season play out and how +511 club names react, the results have been quite interesting. That a name is on the +511 Club the night before an earnings event is a surprise to me .. but, hot names like FSLR & LNKD accomplished this.. I guess Institutional buyers buy into earnings.

On a different matter, it appears to me that there is rotation going on in the market, e.g. after being a leading sector for months, XLU has seen some declines over the last few days. If some of the big pharma names (GSK is my tell) and consumer retail brands (JNJ is my tell) cannot resume their up trends in the next several days, and the biotech sector falters (IBB is my tell); then I think we have more evidence of the rotation. Meanwhile, the market indexes are holding up at recent-year highs, so I see rotation to other names rather than a rotation to cash which equals a downtrend.

At this point, I only have theories about where $$ may be flowing, but am I holding Japan long via TM & DXJ; some tech names (CREE, GOOG, SPLK, QIHU), Divy names (HLLS, EMLP, REM, CHI, RESI) and others (IPG, CBRL). If you look at the LEV charts on the EV site, you will see the silky smooth LEV up trends that I favor, e.g. IPG, CBRL & TM. In order to sort his all out, my analysis starts with the long +511 Club list and I look further down the RS list into the 70's and mid-60's. Alternatively, one could wait until the beneficiaries of the rotation emerge up through the RS rankings.

All my best.

Shawn[ATTACH]18324[/ATTACH]

Hi-

Market is in a super--strong uptrend.

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8 of 10 winners, and avg gain is +1.56% (close to close) & 1.81% (open to close).

We want to be thinking about getting up on margin right here

I strongly recommend you guys look to Pascl's real time offering, and take a look at 50d look at TM, CREE. IPG & GOOG (I own all these names, just follow the money) - 50d's shows you what is materiel Vs not.

Pascal has given all u need to make a lot of $$$$$.

Shawn

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If you feel this is time to go on margin after 6 consecutive months and 3 consecutive weeks of QE-propelled gains without any meaningful pullback or correction, just when the Fed is beginning to lay the grounds for a “soft” exit out of QE and on an index options expiration week prior to an even more shaky VIX expiration week, I think you are becoming too complacent and long-biased opinioned. You probably didn’t prepare for a plan B just in case the market decides to sell-off suddenly due to a logical change in order flow at such a mature stage of a bull advance.

We don’t know when the sell-off will come but it can happen at any moment from now on and we have to be ready for it. It might even be more nasty than usual precisely because of the current historical high levels of margin debt only seen just before the 2000 and 2007 crashes. Margin calls can create a panicky snowball effect; professionals know it and will seek opportunities to shake out investors exposed on margin.

Now, I admit that topping most often is a slow process and vigilant observers of the market should have second chances to exit near the temporary highs. But that will happen on very volatile and frightening moves, not an ideal time to be on margin.

Go on margin if you really believe it is the best strategy, but please take quickly your leveraged profits off the table while you have them and cut your losses as much faster as you are leveraged!
Just your old chap sentiment here.
Billy

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Hi-

Billy, thank you for your note. I will take care, and try to be on guard for a correction. I also see reports that short interest is at high levels. [url]http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/spx500/2013/05/09/ssi_spx500.html[/url]

I have assembled the previous week's LEV Leaders. There are 45 names. I will report back how this list does over the following week.

Take care,

Shawn
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Hi-

Here are the results for today:

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Shawn

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Hi -

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Take care,

Shawn

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Hi -

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Lots of great opportunities out there.

All my best,

Shawn

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Hi-
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Take care,

Shawn

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Hi-

Better than ever...

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I hope you guys are participating in this rally.

NAV was a perfect IBD set-up - I was unable to take advantage.. but, that goes in the model books..

Got on ERX

Shawn

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Hi,

The win rate was 64% with 29 wins vs 16 losses.

The avg gain was 1.23% with PERI being the largest gain of +17.06% & BKS the greatest loss - 14.20%

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Shawn

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Hi-

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Shawn

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Thank you Shawn.
This is great to see how your work produces returns on a weekly base.


Pascal

Hi-

Thanks Pascal. I hope everyone can use this information to benefit their trading.

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Take care,

Shawn

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Hi-

Tough day at the office.

Here are the results:

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Shawn

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FWIW - I am expecting choppy unconfirmed conditions for the next several days.. then, either: 1) confirmed down move , or 2) re-assertion of uptrend w/ a rotation to industrials, e.g PSX or XLI.

If am correct, the stocks you have owned for that last few weeks will probably not continue to go higher.

On Japan, most of the world's hedge funds (and me) are waiting to buy TM, DXJ, etc. on a pull-back. Note the recent several days of gap-higher and then move-higher price moves. Then, today DXJ puts in a shooting star doji - really, its gotta have a more ominous, dreadful candlestick name, but I do not think there is an official westernized name for a shooting start that is also an outside reversal candle on higher volume, but you get my point.. let's be patient on Japan for now.

PSS: Anyone notice that TBT has been on the +511 Club list for several days??? Its low RS, but nice bullish engulfing candle for those who believe interest rates go higher from here (that group of people would include me and anyone else who remembers when a 7% 30-year fixed mortgage was a good deal). Probably shorting the long term debt market, i.e. long TBT, is a reasonable use of our time for the foreseeable future.

Hi-

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Take care,

Shawn

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Hi-

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ok, the gap down was bought.

Shawn
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Hi-

The LEV Leader Index is comprised of the previous weeks RS +90 names that were in the +511 Club in the previous 5d's. So, this week's results are for the names that were LEV Leaders from May 13-17, and their performance is tracked over the next week, May 17 to May 24 close.

This last week the LEV Leaders showed significant avg losses of -2.11% and the win rate was only 24% with 14 winners against 45 losers. I take this to mean that the leading stocks have issued a warning.

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Take care,

Shawn

PS: these 2 .xls files are the for this last week and for the coming week, if you would like to track this index on your own.

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Hi-

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Shawn

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Hi-

Continued weakness in the leaders.

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Shawn

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Hi-

Pretty good results from the LEV Leaders today:

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Thanks,

Shawn

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Hi-

Here are the weekly results:

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Take care,

Shawn

Here are the LEV Leaders for May 31 - Jun 7

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Hi-

Here are the results from Fri, May 31, 2013:

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Take care,

Shawn

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Hi-

Interesting day with many high RS, momentum names taking heavy losses, especially early, e.g. TSLA

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Take care,

Shawn

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Is there a explanation of the +511 Club somewhere?

Thanks,

Jim


[QUOTE=shawn_molodow;25794]Hi-

Interesting day with many high RS, momentum names taking heavy losses, especially early, e.g. TSLA

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Take care,

Shawn

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Hi-

The +511 Club is a screen of about 2700 names that is done each night to find the names that show steady upward progress of Large Effective Volume (LEV) over the last 20d. This is believed to be an expression of steady Institutional accumulation in these names.

+511 is the highest number the screening algo's applies to names that show increasing LEV at 2d, 5d, 10d, 15 & 20d. The algo assigns other numbers to different LEV configurations, .e.g -511 shows decreasing LEV at each of these points. This screen saves one the time of manually looking at 2700 names, but some of the +511 names show more *jagged* LEV than others, and therefore, I would suggest that you look at the most promising names in the "RT Effective Volume" section of this site to confirm the smoothness of the LEV uptrend.

The +511 group of names is also further screened each night for IBD RS, and the names above +80 and +90 are called out separately in different tabs in the attached .xls. I believe the +90 names represent leadership in the market, and I call them LEV Leaders and present results for these names over 1 week and next day.

Let me know if you have additional Q's.

Take care,

Shawn

PS: In my personal trading, when trading the long side of the market +80% of all the long positions are from the +511 club list, and mainly the LEV Leaders

Hi-

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Shawn

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Hi:

Another way I use this list, is as a leadership list. Leaders usually signal market action in advance. Note that the results here started being non-positive around Mid-May - to me that was a warning. I am now 98% cash (and the remainder is short TLT and IWM, similar to Pascal's macro ideas) and have been so for several days through the market chop. Volatility is growing, be on guard.

When this list turns positive on a consistent basis, then we can look to move out on the long side. Also, note the number of names is low - the # on the list is approaching the mid-April lows.

Last comment: We are tracking Institutional accumulation here; that is not the same thing as names that will for sure advance. Bear markets take all names down, they eventually get to every name, notwithstanding whether Institutions are buying them or no.. Institutions will buy all the way to the bottom... they must buy.. we do not have to.

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Take care,

Shawn

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Hi-

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Shawn

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Hi-

This index tracks the returns for the LEV Leaders from the previous week. So, the LEV Leaders posted for May 28-31 are compiled into one list and tracked over the following week, i.e. Jun 3 - 7.

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Shawn

For next week, the LEV Leader Index will track these names which were LEV Leaders Jun 3-7:

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Hi-

Results from Fri:

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Shawn

For Mon:

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Hi:

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Shawn

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Hi,

I was curious if you filter out lower volume stocks? If so, what volume do you use for filtering.

Thanks for posting your updates.

Hi-

When the 2700 name were assembled a $7.00 price and 100K avg volume (over 50d's) was used as a cut-off threshold.

In addition, if more than 40% of the 1-min time intervals for a given name do not show volume, then these names create an error in the software I run, and they are excluded for that day.

I hope that helps,

Shawn