GDX/NUGT trading decision
PdP,
Why are not you trading the NUGT instead of the GDX when the RT and EOD are in the same direction ?
Yakov.
Combo-MF may go SHORT end of day
Nearly all of the tests necessary for the VSTpro to go SHORT are fulfilled today.
The possibility that the VSTpro goes SHORT at end of this session is very high.
If that happens, then the Combo-MF will go from CASH to SHORT.
The final condition is CLOSE being lower than the OPEN.
I will open a new long trade SQQQ just before the close if all the conditions are met.
PdP
Update for April 19, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model has gone SHORT yesterday
The 20DMF is still SHORT since April 13
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is now also SHORT
The PM MF is still LONG since April 10
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I am personally long SMN since March 28, long NUGT since April 10 and long SIJ since April 10
I have opened a new long trade in SQQQ yesterday just before the close
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The primary condition for the VSTpro to go LONG again is crossing up of the MA by the S&P500.
Because we are present so near to that MA, the possibility is (for now) rather high.
If this does not happen and unless the 20DMF goes LONG (not very possible now) then the Combo-MF stays SHORT.
Even if the 20DMF goes to CASH then the Combo-MF will remain SHORT.
The important thing to watch for is a close above the MA by the S&P500.
There are other tests as well but the crossing up of the MA is significant.
[U]Disclaimer:[/U] this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
Update for April 20, 2012
[INDENT][U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is still SHORT since April 18
The 20DMF is still SHORT since April 13
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is SHORT
The PM MF is still LONG since April 10
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I am personally long SMN since March 28, long NUGT since April 10, long SIJ since April 10 and long SQQQ since April 19
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The primary condition for the VSTpro to go LONG is crossing up of the MA by the S&P500.
Because we are still so near to that MA, the possibility is rather high.
If today the close of the S&P500 is above 1386.09 (= 0.67%) then this condition is met.
Although the VSTpro model has several conditions before going LONG, the crossing of the MA is significant and necessary.
If this does not happen and unless the 20DMF goes LONG then the Combo-MF stays SHORT.
Even if the 20DMF goes to CASH then the Combo-MF will remain SHORT.
[U]Disclaimer:[/U] this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
[/INDENT]
Update for April 23, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is still SHORT since April 18
The 20DMF is still SHORT since April 13
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is SHORT
The PM MF is still LONG since April 10
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I am personally long SMN since March 28, long NUGT since April 10, long SIJ since April 10 and long SQQQ since April 19
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The primary condition for the VSTpro to go LONG is crossing up of the MA by the S&P500.
Because we are still so near to that MA, the possibility is rather high.
If today the close of the S&P500 is above 1382.98 (= 0.32%) then this condition is met.
Although the VSTpro model has several conditions before going LONG, the crossing of the MA is significant and necessary.
If this does not happen and unless the 20DMF goes LONG then the Combo-MF stays SHORT.
Even if the 20DMF goes to CASH then the Combo-MF will remain SHORT.
[U]Disclaimer:[/U] this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
Update for April 24, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is still SHORT since April 18
The 20DMF is still SHORT since April 13
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is SHORT
The PM MF is SHORT since April 23
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I am personally long SMN since March 28, long SIJ since April 10 and long SQQQ since April 19
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The primary condition for the VSTpro to go LONG is crossing up of the MA by the S&P500.
Because we are still so near to that MA, the possibility is rather high.
If today the close of the S&P500 is above 1379.40 (= 0.90%) then this condition is met.
Although the VSTpro model has several conditions before going LONG, the crossing of the MA is significant and necessary.
If this does not happen and unless the 20DMF goes LONG then the Combo-MF stays SHORT.
Even if the 20DMF goes to CASH then the Combo-MF will remain SHORT.
[U]Disclaimer:[/U] this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
Update for April 25, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is still SHORT since April 18
The 20DMF is still SHORT since April 13
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is SHORT
The PM MF is SHORT since April 23
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I am personally long SMN since March 28, long SIJ since April 10 and long SQQQ since April 19
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The primary condition for the VSTpro to go LONG is crossing up of the MA by the S&P500.
Because we are still so near to that MA, the possibility is rather high.
If today the close of the S&P500 is above 1377.33 (= 0.39%) then this condition is met.
Although the VSTpro model has several conditions before going LONG, the crossing of the MA is significant and necessary.
If this does not happen and unless the 20DMF goes LONG then the Combo-MF stays SHORT.
Even if the 20DMF goes to CASH then the Combo-MF will remain SHORT.
[U]Disclaimer:[/U] this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
Intraday Update for April 25, 2012
The S&P500 has been above the MA since the open today.
This sets the primary condition for the VSTpro to go again LONG.
An other condofition is that the low of today must be below the MA.
This means that the S&P500 has to drop below 1377.33 and go up again to trigger the LONG signal.
For the moment is the S&P500 in the neighborhood of 1385.
The odds are low for a trigger today, I presume.
The VSTpro will remain SHORT unless the trigger is pulled.
PdP
Update for April 26, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model has gone LONG again yesterday.
The 20DMF is still SHORT since April 13.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is now in CASH due to the conflict between VSTpro and 20DMF.
The PM MF is SHORT since April 23.
[U]Note[/U]
To my supprise, the VSTpro model signaled a LONG signal yesterday. There is a condition that stated that the low of the day must be below the MA at the time of an upward crossing of the MA. Yesterday, the low was way above the MA. But still the VSTpro signaled a LONG signal. I did a very deep dive into the VSTpro coding and found that the close of the previous day was taken in consideration too for a test below the MA.
Sorry about my intraday comment of yesterday. It was premature.
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I am personally long SMN since March 28 and long SIJ since April 10.
I am closing the long SQQQ at the open today.
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The primary condition for the VSTpro to go SHORT is a minimum of two days downwards slope of the S&P500 moving average. This is still true. The second condition for the VSTpro to go SHORT is a close below the open. If this happens then the VSTpro will go SHORT again. There are other conditions as well but these two are very important and necessary. If the VStpro goes SHORT again and the 20DMF stays SHORT (or goes to CASH) then the Combo-MF will go SHORT again.
[U]Disclaimer:[/U] this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
Update for April 27, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is LONG since April 25.
The 20DMF has gone NEUTRAL yesterday.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is now again LONG.
The PM MF has gone LONG yesterday.
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I will close the long SMN and long SIJ trades at the open today.
I will start new trades long TQQQ, long NUGT, long UYM and long UXI today at the open.
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The primary condition for the VSTpro to go SHORT is a minimum of two days downwards slope of the S&P500 moving average. This is no longer true. The slope of the MA has turned upwards again yesterday. There is hereby no possibility that the VSTpro will change its LONG state today or Monday.
Unless the 20DMF goes SHORT, the Combo-MF will stay LONG.
[U]Disclaimer:[/U] this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next
Update for April 30, 2012
[U]Status MFs:[/U]
The VStpro model is LONG since April 25.
The existing 20DMF model has gone SHORT last Friday. Pascal is very busy creating a new 20DMF using gaps.
As I can tell, this new model has present a positive MF so I will conclude that this new 20DMF model is certain not in a SHORT state.
Following my judgement the Combo-MF is LONG since April 26.
The PM MF is LONG since April 26.
[U]My current trades:[/U]
I am long long TQQQ, long NUGT, long UYM and long UXI all since April 27.
[U]Possible changes:[/U]
The primary condition for the VSTpro to go SHORT is a minimum of two days downwards slope of the S&P500 moving average. The MA is for the moment still going up. There is hereby no possibility that the VSTpro will change its LONG state today or tomorrow.
Unless the 20DMF goes SHORT, the Combo-MF will stay LONG.
[U]Disclaimer:[/U] this information is not an investment advice on what to trade next