a little selling RTH
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a little selling RTH
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some buying RTH
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a little selling RTH, basically consolidation at the high.
I think we see currently an accelerated buying-wave during rth.
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RTH -buying today.
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We had some buying RTH.
Overnight-odds point to some weakness till the next RTH.
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more RTH buying today.
yesterday night the market decided against my overnight odds (seasonality based).
We had strong Asia and Europe sessions.
I interpret this as relative strength.
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we had some selling-RTH.
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another RTH selling session with ON buying.
this was the pattern till 2015.
If we repeat this pattern, it is very bullish to me.
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We are not the only ones tracking this behavior.
[QUOTE]stocks have rallied due to large passive funds buying during RTH, investing recent massive inflows[/QUOTE]
[url]http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2016/07/overnight-manipulation/[/url]
we had a buying rth session.
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another RTH buying session.
and the ON selling trend might turn up.
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another buying rth session.
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a selling rth session.
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a buying rth session.
and some buying ON.
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A rth selling session.
basically flat on the high.
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a RTH buying session.
A tight trading range on the high.
This tilts the odds bullish to me.
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a selling rth session.
flat on the high.
Breakout soon, most likely up.
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tight consolidation continuous.
(Not worthy of a picture :) )
A RTH buying session.
No breakout yet - on any time-slice.
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I skipped a day.
Today we had a 2th day of RTH selling.
Yet I don't see a change in behavior for now.
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a RTH buying session.
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----
something else:
I came across this article by Michael Ashton.
[url]https://mikeashton.wordpress.com/2016/07/28/more-esther-less-mester/[/url]
He contrasts value, momentum and carry as drivers for equities.
As a metric he introduces 10y yield - 3month libor spread to show the carry as a factor.
I reproduced it as a ratio (not the right spreads on stockchart)
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according to this, carry is not a strong factor currently.
... or carry has less impact on (long) positions
more RTH buying today.
no change in behavior visible in our little way to display market data.
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Indeed, no change here. So Nirp refugees still well present.
Yesterday, Japanese refugees did not fin investing in US assets interesting, but UK became closer to the Nirp refugee status.
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one rth selling session after 3 rth buying days.
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RTH unchanged by a tick.
(no pic)
some RTH selling
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some RTH buying.
Still flat in our trading range at the high RTH.
But ON seems to see some buying.
This would change the long down bias of the last 12 months overnight.
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small up RTH
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We had a buying session during RTH.
Before that ON saw also buying.
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a RTH selling session.
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RTH buying
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a 2th RTH buying session.
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another buying RTH session.
I see a breakout up out of our little trading range at the top.
Overnight is weak.
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a little RTH selling session.
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RTH buying session after 2 days of rth selling.
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A RTH selling session.
no change in behavior so far IMO in this view.
I think the market had a chance to break this week based on rate expectations, but the FED talk was less bearish on Friday.
I also wonder about bonds.
Will ZB and ES zigzag lower, but on opposite days once the market expects higher rates again.
Other scenarios are;
Will the ES be weak on higher rate expectations - the text book behavior expected by most participants in US.
Or will the wider rate differential after a hike in US drive money even faster into US assets from the NIRPs.
What sequence will this take, what is the stronger force ?
I bet the differentials are the stronger force.
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and up again.
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a small selling RTH session.
bullish seasonality today and tomorrow.
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A 2th day of RTH selling.
If you use a big pencil it is a straight line :) )
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a "buying" session by 1 point.
this counts as an up-day on the stats :)
(no change no pic)