20DMF

[Pascal]

CTick still pushing higher. Even poor GDP numbers seem to be good. No negativity until elections?


Pascal

37179

[Pascal]

With the poor GDP Figures, the probability of higher US rates is going down. This means that Tresuries are bought and the carry trade is reversing (Yen getting stronger).

3718137183

The USD is down and gold is up. We finally know why the Euro/USD was strong in the past days: the poor GDP Figures had been leaked.

3718237180

The problem is that the rates differentials should be equities bearish, but the Cumulative Tick is going up, because algos have been programmed in a non-Nirp environment, where lower rates are good for equities. But lower rates can revert the flow of money out of Nirp countries. This is what currencies are showing.

Something is wrong here. Let's wait for the 20DMF and the Cumulative Tick to tell us what to do.
Increasing long positions is not a good idea here, except maybe for gold.


Pascal