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Pascal
07-12-2016, 12:52 PM
The issue of today's market is that because central banks are the real buyers of assets while keeping rates low, there is no remaining short-seller.

Under such circumstances, gold should be going to new highs, but gold is under heavy pressure today.

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The Yen is heavily sold, while the US$... is also sold.

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Oil is also very strong today, pushing energy with it. Probably the result of the Chinese territorial claims being dashed by independent courts. This probably means a cold war starting between China and the US, with its side effects: China selling US Treasuries.

I have a 10% short position (underwater) in this market, hoping that the earnings season will bring "value" to the front burner instead of Central Banks. Probably wishful thinking...



Pascal

PeterR
07-12-2016, 01:07 PM
I find the thought helpful, that part of the USD weakness is money flushing back from cash into equities.
(assumes that not much private money was in bonds - so the bond selloff has less impact on usd )

<- this is actually supported by the ES/ZB ratio:

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?Image=1468345917807.png

top panel SP500 Futures
lower panel SP500 Futures / bonds ratio

The money that fuels the current equity rally does not only come out of bonds.
(otherwise they are like moon and sun)