8-23-2015

[Mike]

Comments and watchlists will be delayed until Tuesday do to a family reunion. It is unclear that I would trade tomorrow anyway if I had the chance.

A possibility in my mind is a market like October 1987 which at this point in the analogy moved into rapid decline.

[adam ali]

Comments and watchlists will be delayed until Tuesday do to a family reunion. It is unclear that I would trade tomorrow anyway if I had the chance.

A possibility in my mind is a market like October 1987 which at this point in the analogy moved into rapid decline.

Mike,

Per this article from John Hussman, did Didier's work pan out so to speak? I know you were tracking it in part.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131111.htm

Adam

[Mike]

Mike,

Per this article from John Hussman, did Didier's work pan out so to speak? I know you were tracking it in part.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131111.htm

Adam

Adam,

I attempted to use Didier Sornette's work to identify a possible top and back in 2013 (date of the Hussman article) it indeed looked like we were approaching a "Sornette" top with a critical date around January 2014. Since that led to only a 6% decline I concluded that all of my methods of identifying market tops were broken (at least for the current QE era). I also track all of the other top looking methods identified by Hussman to also conclude that those methods of market evaluation would eventually work but those tools are too blunt to identify when the top would occur.

The possible S&P500 rounded top that I identified a week or so ago was a new attempt to identify a structure that looks like a classic top. So far that prediction which was really a question (has the market already topped?) seems to be unfolding in the affirmative.