Jerry Samet
04-03-2015, 11:46 AM
The market staged a mild rally yesterday with the major averages opening higher and staying in positive territory most of the session. After two days of declines that pretty much wiped out Monday’s solid gains a bounce would not be unexpected. We got one, but it wasn’t anything to get excited about. The COMPQ gained .35% while the SPX was higher by .37%. Volume was lower across the board, as would be expected before a three day holiday weekend with an employment report coming out on a day when the market is closed. It did however continue the pattern of declines on higher volume with bounces on lower volume. This is not a positive pattern. Leading stocks were slightly higher as well as the leaders index gained .26% on the day, underperforming the overall market. The index closed in about the middle of it’s intraday range and closed right on it’s 17dma. Volume was lower on the day and the relative strength line of the index declined further. Quality growth stocks are however holding up better than the major averages. They are either slightly above or slightly below their 50dma’s while the leaders index is holding it’s 17dma. The employment report came out this morning much weaker than expected and as of this writing the futures were selling off pretty hard. A lot can happen between now and the open on Monday, but another sell off, particularly with volume would likely be the final nail in the coffin of this rally. Few leading stocks are producing worthwhile gains and the risk level is high. A good deal of caution is warranted. I hope everyone has a good Passover and Easter. Jerry