Timothy Clontz
12-22-2013, 09:28 PM
Sector Model XLB 0.00%
Large Portfolio Date Return Days
ABX 4/11/2013 -31.12% 254
NEM 9/30/2013 -18.41% 82
BCR 10/4/2013 15.18% 78
ED 10/18/2013 -2.46% 64
ISRG 10/21/2013 -3.23% 61
EW 10/28/2013 -15.40% 54
ARLP 11/11/2013 1.52% 40
JOY 11/18/2013 -3.82% 33
OXY 11/27/2013 -4.29% 24
FFIV 12/16/2013 8.14% 5
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P Annualized 12.49%
Sector Model Annualized 23.16%
Large Portfolio Annualized 28.35%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2013/12/12222013-who-needs-santa-claus.html
Rotation: selling FFIV; buying MUR (Murphy Oil).
Those watching the sector model on the blog will have seen most of the recent whipsawing (you were spared the intraday whipsawing).
We can thank the Fed for the confusion. Now that everyone has figured out that the previous level of QE was bullish, they have no idea how to calculate the taper.
So, XLU was the bearish play and XLB the bullish one.
XLB is only ahead by a hair, and I’m expecting more whipsawing in the near future.
To those hoping for a Santa Claus rally – aren’t we at all-time highs? What else would you want?
And, being at all-time highs, it’s quite obvious that value stocks have been left in the dust.
Seasonally, the Santa Claus rally / January effect is a small value phenomenon. So, THAT’s what I want – to catch up to the index funds!
I may have to wait a bit longer, though. The style model is showing small blend in the buy zone, rather than small value. Whatever happens this week, I don’t expect the full impact on my own model until January.
For those traveling this week – be safe and enjoy your family.
Tim
Large Portfolio Date Return Days
ABX 4/11/2013 -31.12% 254
NEM 9/30/2013 -18.41% 82
BCR 10/4/2013 15.18% 78
ED 10/18/2013 -2.46% 64
ISRG 10/21/2013 -3.23% 61
EW 10/28/2013 -15.40% 54
ARLP 11/11/2013 1.52% 40
JOY 11/18/2013 -3.82% 33
OXY 11/27/2013 -4.29% 24
FFIV 12/16/2013 8.14% 5
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P Annualized 12.49%
Sector Model Annualized 23.16%
Large Portfolio Annualized 28.35%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2013/12/12222013-who-needs-santa-claus.html
Rotation: selling FFIV; buying MUR (Murphy Oil).
Those watching the sector model on the blog will have seen most of the recent whipsawing (you were spared the intraday whipsawing).
We can thank the Fed for the confusion. Now that everyone has figured out that the previous level of QE was bullish, they have no idea how to calculate the taper.
So, XLU was the bearish play and XLB the bullish one.
XLB is only ahead by a hair, and I’m expecting more whipsawing in the near future.
To those hoping for a Santa Claus rally – aren’t we at all-time highs? What else would you want?
And, being at all-time highs, it’s quite obvious that value stocks have been left in the dust.
Seasonally, the Santa Claus rally / January effect is a small value phenomenon. So, THAT’s what I want – to catch up to the index funds!
I may have to wait a bit longer, though. The style model is showing small blend in the buy zone, rather than small value. Whatever happens this week, I don’t expect the full impact on my own model until January.
For those traveling this week – be safe and enjoy your family.
Tim