Timothy Clontz
02-28-2013, 07:16 AM
Sector Model XLU 36.82%
Large Portfolio Date Return Days
BBRY 7/16/2012 82.76% 227
SEAC 9/25/2012 39.29% 156
CAJ 9/25/2012 3.69% 156
CFI 10/31/2012 37.53% 120
RE 11/26/2012 19.46% 94
NSC 1/28/2013 5.06% 31
BOKF 2/4/2013 4.92% 24
SWM 2/12/2013 1.61% 16
GMCR 2/19/2013 5.38% 9
OKE 2/25/2013 -4.79% 3
S&P Annualized 6.91%
Sector Model Annualized 19.63%
Large Portfolio Annualized 30.44%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2013/02/02282013-also-sprach-bernanke.html
No rotation. Just a timing note.
A lot of folks got excited when the market took a dive. Timers piled on short.
Then Bernanke spoke.
Timers hate Bernanke.
So where ARE we?
Well, strictly speaking, I don’t time the market. But I do measure the sectors and industries. In my note on Sunday I said that if I were hedging I’d be about 60% long and 40% short.
After the whipsawing this week I got curious and reran the model. This morning it is showing an ideal 70% long and 30% short portfolio. Still not wildly long, but certainly not aggressively short either. Just a trifle more long than it was on Sunday.
That said, the average true range of the VIX is growing (i.e. the volatility of the volatility index is rising).
If I HAD to read the tea leaves, I’d GUESS (and all anyone can do is guess nowadays) that the market will grow more volatile in a struggle to break all-time highs on more indexes. I understand the DOW made it there, but the S&P has a wee bit more to go.
My timing expert friend, Len, is a bit more bearish in the short term.
And we could BOTH be right, since he looks at shorter time frames than I do. I measure the market in months and he measures in weeks. Perhaps more whipsawing. But I wouldn’t get too excited either way. Not yet. If you try to time, you’d better have a darned good model and flexible stops.
For what it’s worth, these are the best long industries on my model:
ELECFGN
ENTTECH
OILGAS
BANKMID
WIRELESS
FURNITUR
GROCERY
AUTO
NWSPAPER
GASDIVRS
REINSUR
GOLDSILV
EDUC
ADVERT
…and these are the best industries to short:
PROPMGT
BIOTECH
ITSERV
DIVERSIF
CABLETV
PIPEMLP
Fasten on to your seat belts. The sequester is nothing compared to the next crisis due to hit at the end of March.
Tim
Large Portfolio Date Return Days
BBRY 7/16/2012 82.76% 227
SEAC 9/25/2012 39.29% 156
CAJ 9/25/2012 3.69% 156
CFI 10/31/2012 37.53% 120
RE 11/26/2012 19.46% 94
NSC 1/28/2013 5.06% 31
BOKF 2/4/2013 4.92% 24
SWM 2/12/2013 1.61% 16
GMCR 2/19/2013 5.38% 9
OKE 2/25/2013 -4.79% 3
S&P Annualized 6.91%
Sector Model Annualized 19.63%
Large Portfolio Annualized 30.44%
From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2013/02/02282013-also-sprach-bernanke.html
No rotation. Just a timing note.
A lot of folks got excited when the market took a dive. Timers piled on short.
Then Bernanke spoke.
Timers hate Bernanke.
So where ARE we?
Well, strictly speaking, I don’t time the market. But I do measure the sectors and industries. In my note on Sunday I said that if I were hedging I’d be about 60% long and 40% short.
After the whipsawing this week I got curious and reran the model. This morning it is showing an ideal 70% long and 30% short portfolio. Still not wildly long, but certainly not aggressively short either. Just a trifle more long than it was on Sunday.
That said, the average true range of the VIX is growing (i.e. the volatility of the volatility index is rising).
If I HAD to read the tea leaves, I’d GUESS (and all anyone can do is guess nowadays) that the market will grow more volatile in a struggle to break all-time highs on more indexes. I understand the DOW made it there, but the S&P has a wee bit more to go.
My timing expert friend, Len, is a bit more bearish in the short term.
And we could BOTH be right, since he looks at shorter time frames than I do. I measure the market in months and he measures in weeks. Perhaps more whipsawing. But I wouldn’t get too excited either way. Not yet. If you try to time, you’d better have a darned good model and flexible stops.
For what it’s worth, these are the best long industries on my model:
ELECFGN
ENTTECH
OILGAS
BANKMID
WIRELESS
FURNITUR
GROCERY
AUTO
NWSPAPER
GASDIVRS
REINSUR
GOLDSILV
EDUC
ADVERT
…and these are the best industries to short:
PROPMGT
BIOTECH
ITSERV
DIVERSIF
CABLETV
PIPEMLP
Fasten on to your seat belts. The sequester is nothing compared to the next crisis due to hit at the end of March.
Tim