GDX New probability

[Pascal]

Starting tomorrow, we will introduce a new probability on the GDX RT page, which shows the probability that a signal will be issued intraday.

This probability is changing as the market evolves. For example, we are now at 8.3%


Pascal

16679

[DJones]

Is this the probability of the MF signal, stop loss, or greater of the two?

[Pascal]

We will add an indication on the nature of this next signal, but we do not take the stop loss into account here: only the MF status changes that result in a buy or sell action.


Pascal


Is this the probability of the MF signal, stop loss, or greater of the two?

[davidallison@gmail.com]

Hi Pascal, I am curious to know whether you are still long GDX and if you are, whether a short signal will force you out of the trade and go short today, or whether you are acting on the probability figure. It's all the whipsawing in the last month I'm wondering about. thank you for sharing. Dave

[Pascal]

Hi Pascal, I am curious to know whether you are still long GDX and if you are, whether a short signal will force you out of the trade and go short today, or whether you are acting on the probability figure. It's all the whipsawing in the last month I'm wondering about. thank you for sharing. Dave

This Gold/Silver "take down" does not make sense.

However, I'll trade the model as it tells to be traded. The only thing is that I am keeping the position small because the whipsaws indicate that there is a real battle going on. By taking the futures down, I believe that the real target is to start a sell-off in the GLD ETF, because then some of the physical underlying gold can be made free.

If there is a confirmed short signal on GDX, I will probably hedge the short GDX by a long gold position.


Pascal