11/06/2012 Morning trade

[Timothy Clontz]

Selling OKE; buying ALTE.

Sorry for last minute notice. Wife just had a baby...

[ilonaross]

Mazel Tov!

[Pascal]

Congratulations for the new baby!

In fact, there is no need to trade every day and I believe that "new baby" qualifies for looking at life from a point of view different than the S&P500.

So, no need to worry about "market communication."
Enjoy the new life and forget about posting for some days.
Market will still be there next week!



Pascal

[asomani]

Congratulations Tim. Enjoy this special occasion.

[lisa]

tim,

all those political grumblings of yours, and you have a baby on election day. well timed!

congratulations!
lisa

[Harry]

Congrats Tim!

Harry

[pdp-brugge]

Congratulations!

Pascal aka PdP-Brugge

[Timothy Clontz]

Thanks everyone!

[Timothy Clontz]

Small Portfolio XLF & IAU 15.83%

Position Date Return Days
DECK 6/15/2012 -33.65% 145
RIMM 7/16/2012 13.66% 114
SEAC 9/25/2012 11.51% 43
CAJ 9/25/2012 -8.52% 43
DDAIF 9/25/2012 -9.40% 43
NSC 10/8/2012 -9.63% 30
WMK 10/22/2012 -0.88% 16
CFI 10/31/2012 -0.65% 7
CGX 11/5/2012 13.59% 2
ALTE 11/6/2012 -2.96% 1

S&P Annualized 2.55%
Small Portfolio Annualized 10.99%
Large Portfolio Annualized 16.04%

From: http://market-mousetrap.blogspot.com/2012/11/11072012-rotation-selling-nsc-buying-mo.html
Rotation: selling NSC; buying MO.
This one is a bit of a scare for the economy. NSC is in the railroad industry and MO is in the tobacco industry. In other words, we won’t be transporting real goods, but we’ll be smoking to make ourselves feel better.
A lot of talk about a new bear market / recession. I’ll discuss it more this weekend, but I believe we’ve BEEN in a bear market since May 2011, and it’s just been a sideways move instead of down because of all the quantitative easing.
Take a look at the annualized return rate for the S&P during that time. Right, 2.55%. Heck, that was less than our intraday move today!
In the same light, we are due a recession going into 2013, but if there is no fiscal cliff it’s likely to be sideways as well. Technically that’s called a “growth recession” instead of a “boring economy.”
I’d rather the latter phrase.
As for the election – again more this weekend – but it’s not the end of the world that we have a Democrat White House and Senate and a Republican House. In fact, it’s a good thing.
In any case, today was a nice panic washout. We are oversold now and SHOULD bounce.
At least the Mousetrap is holding its own through all this noise.
Tim