20DMF

[Pascal]

Such type of negative divergence (a price bounce does not attract new money and a pull-back to support is sold into) does not look too good.

The action in the PM sector indicates that the market expects that liquidity will soon save the day.
PM are already overextended on the daily. GDX might pull-back to DR2 (41.35).



Pascal

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[Billy]

Pascal, any comments on the OB/OS below -70?
Billy

[Pascal]

Pascal, any comments on the OB/OS below -70?
Billy

We indeed are now below the OS level. This means that a buy signal could be issued on a bounce.
That is... we still might continue dropping from here.

I would like to point to a few changes in the market:

1. AAPL

The TEV trend is now down. The Lower Boundary has been broken, and most importantly, there is a growing number of shareholders who are losing more than 10% and will need to reduce their positions. I think that this is the most negative point about this market. They might hide tomorrow behind the FB hype to sell more AAPL. We will need to have a close look at that.

2. VNQ

VNQ has been attracting money in past pull-backs. It is not today!

3. LDK/HYG

LDK has been under selling pressure since quite some time, but HYG is really "dumped" today.

All in all, it does not look too good! So I am not ready to close my shorts, but I will also be cautious to buy the gold miners here. Better wait for a pull-back. A few silver miners are still attracting sellers. So I'd be cautious around silver, but I did buy some gold yesterday and today. I also noticed that Euro might form some sort of a bottom here (Wishful thinking?)


Pascal

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[brrim]

Pascal; How low did the OS level go in the August 2011 debacle?
Thank you.
Robert

[Pascal]

Pascal; How low did the OS level go in the August 2011 debacle?
Thank you.
Robert

-100 on August 8, 2011. That was the only time it went that low.


Pascal

[Pascal]

Status at the close: well in OS now.
A FB bounce tomorrow?
If we have one, it is not in the MF of today. Then maybe due to overnight news???
However, such negativity will attract more forced selling.


Pascal

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