Jerry Samet
04-01-2012, 11:52 AM
The market started off strong last week with a rally on Monday, partly on remarks from the Fed. There was a Eureka that day that looked like a late stage signal. The rest of the week was sloppy with four down days in a row on the Nasd with high volume. This increased the number of distribution days to four on the Nasd, five on the SPY and seven on the NYA. This is a lot of distribution and likely was the cause of IBD's switching to market under pressure. The major averages are still holding important moving averages with all but the NYA above the 10dma. Leading stocks are acting worse than the overall market. The leaders index set a new high for the move on Monday and spent the rest of the week selling off. Volume was high and there were distribution days on the index on Wednesday and Friday. The RS line of the index also peaked on Monday and moved lower the rest of the week. The leaders index has tagged it's 17dma the last three days and closed Friday right at this important support level. Next week will be critical. If the index breaks below it's 17dma it will be a big negative and indicate that the rally is in real trouble. We need positive action next week. Jerry