Neutral Day For GDX Money Flow - March 22,2012

[Billy]

The Precious Metals Sector Money Flow finished the day unchanged at -0.50% and closed 0.30% away from the average MF + porosity (+0.13%) threshold needed to trigger a long signal for the GDX robot. Even a stable Money Flow from now on could trigger the long signal soon because the average MF is declining by -0.10% a day.

With a neutral MF and yesterday’s Monthly S2 (50.09) key support unable to hold within a strong downtrend, I still view Monthly S3 (47.50) as the most logical final capitulation target for the month of March. Pre-market is pointing to a new gap down and it might revisit Tuesday’s lows around Weekly S1 (48.66). The two support clusters have a total strength of 9 equal to the first resistance cluster alone and many professional floor algorithms will take this into account in case of liquidity problems or a lack of bids from large players. But the RT long bias stays active and doesn’t show signs of a new selloff at this stage.

I am waiting in cash for the next episode. I have no intention to short and I am ready to buy back my long position on a confirmed buy signal.
Billy

13515
13516

[DJones]

Billy:

Confirming here: we've had the crossover. The RT is still long will remain so unless MF drops below the -0.42% average. Right?

The message on the RT page alternates between "buying" and "short". I'll ignore it - but I just want to confirm my understanding (above) since I am now (in Dave's words) "seriously long."

Tks

[Billy]

Billy:

Confirming here: we've had the crossover. The RT is still long will remain so unless MF drops below the -0.42% average. Right?

The message on the RT page alternates between "buying" and "short". I'll ignore it - but I just want to confirm my understanding (above) since I am now (in Dave's words) "seriously long."

Tks

Wrong. Still waiting for a cross of the porosity (+0.13%) above -0.42%. The buy signal is at -0.29%
But the average can decline intraday so that level can be lowered later on intraday.
Billy

[Billy]

Wrong. Still waiting for a cross of the porosity (+0.13%) above -0.42%. The buy signal is at -0.29%
But the average can decline intraday so that level can be lowered later on intraday.
Billy

And if a buy signal is triggered at the average + porosity, a short signal would be triggered if MF falls back below the average - porosity or currently -0.42-0.13= -0.55%.
Billy

[davidallison@gmail.com]

I guess the action of slowly drifting into this position perhaps might temper one’s enthusiasm for the ‘seriously long’ position. I’m watching for acceleration of Price and Money Flow, to offer a clue.

[pdp-brugge]

Billy,
Will there be an email send once the RT model detects a buy/sell?
Or do we have to monitor the RT graphs?

PdP

[Billy]

Billy,
Will there be an email send once the RT model detects a buy/sell?
Or do we have to monitor the RT graphs?

PdP

The email alert system is still under development.
And the RT model is already long, so there would be no RT signal except for a short alert.
Billy

[Billy]

Randgold (GOLD) is a large component of GDX and is down almost 12% on concerns after the Mali coup.
Without this surprise news, GDX might have triggered the buy signal already. But let's respect the model rules!
Billy

[Pascal]

The email alert system is still under development.
And the RT model is already long, so there would be no RT signal except for a short alert.
Billy

The RT system is now seting its messages to monitor the EOD status (Short).
Since we crossed above the average and are now slightly below, I will revert the system to monitoring the RT status, which was in a buy mode.


Pascal

[Pascal]

The RT system is now setting its messages to monitor the EOD status (Short).
Since we crossed above the average and are now slightly below, I will revert the system to monitoring the RT status, which was in a buy mode.


Pascal

OK. The RT shorting message is wrong. I'll revert the messages to monitoring the EOD signal and will review the error on the RT Message.


Pascal

[DJones]

I guess the action of slowly drifting into this position perhaps might temper one’s enthusiasm for the ‘seriously long’ position. I’m watching for acceleration of Price and Money Flow, to offer a clue.

Unfortunately, I agree. Enthusiasm tempered.

I'm still looking at price decline in the GDX from 50.11 with MF at -0.86% to 48.74 with MF at -0.44%. Money has come in, and fairly steadily, and the price has had a couple of big gaps down. For me, a good test of the fundamental approach.

[DJones]

OK. The RT shorting message is wrong. I'll revert the messages to monitoring the EOD signal and will review the error on the RT Message.


Pascal

No worries. Billy's great to post here so we know what the RT is doing. It's easy to ignore the message on screen.

[davidallison@gmail.com]

I'm still looking at price decline in the GDX from 50.11 with MF at -0.86% to 48.74 with MF at -0.44%. Money has come in, and fairly steadily, and the price has had a couple of big gaps down. For me, a good test of the fundamental approach.

DJones,
For sure. I've been buying calls on NUGT out to Arpril and May, at the same time had some crash protection with puts on GDX that expire Friday. Sure glad I had the protection. I sold the puts this morning and adding the the NUGT calls. Have to see how the day unfolds.
Dave

[Billy]

If we anticipate that the average MF will be 0.10% lower tomorrow, a buy signal will be at
-0.52 +0.13 = -0.37% and a protective short signal would follow at -0.52 -0.13= -0.65%.
So, if MF stabilizes until the close at or above -0.37% the long signal could be triggered at the open tomorrow, but would need to stay there until the close tomorrow for a long EOD signal.
Billy

[Wei]

Looks like the EOD robot will switch to long pos too (if no surprise comes in the last 5 min.)

[Billy]

Looks like the EOD robot will switch to long pos too (if no surprise comes in the last 5 min.)

The average + porosity limit (-0.29%) was not touched. Very weak MF in the closing minutes. EOD robot stays short.
Billy

[DJones]

The average + porosity limit (-0.29%) was not touched. Very weak MF in the closing minutes. EOD robot stays short.
Billy

RT still long, eh?

[Billy]

RT still long, eh?

Yes. A RT short signal could only happen after Mf has hit average + porosity if it falls below average MF MINUS porosity. We are in whipsaw territory again and porosity range is here to confirm the signals.
Billy