Some Discretion - February 6, 2012

[Billy]

Both robots are still waiting in cash and there are no advised setups.

DISCRETIONARY VIEWS : For IWM, the second resistance cluster including Quarterly R2 (87.15), Yearly R1 (87.01), Semester R1 (86.45) and Weekly R2 (86.26) has a strength of 21 and is the most likely area for a temporary top. A filling gap dip down to Weekly pivot (81.56) or (65,5,30min) volatility stop (81.64) would offer a low risk long entry. If one wants to bet on following the uptrend up to the second resistance cluster with multi-pivot 3:1 reward-risk ratios, the best is to use the long setups proposed daily on the IWM robot page.

12637

For leveraged positions, I would use a much tighter stop just below Daily S3 (81.41) or the lower limit of the first support cluster, especially if the RT 20 DMF is weak at this level.

12638

For GDX, the path of least floor resistance is to the upside, especially in case of a successful decisive break above the 200-day moving average (57.32). But we know that GDX’ fate is much more dependent on money flow than on floor levels. The current GDX MF statistics tell us that we are much closer to a short signal (2.6 days away) than a buy signal (7.6 days away).
Billy

12639

[nickola.pazderic]

With the strong support cluster below it, we might also note that a 20/50 DMA cross is occurring today.

12658

It is prudent to wait for confirmation of this cross tomorrow.

12659

Also, GDX crosses seem much more dubious than do IWM crosses.

[ernsttanaka]

DISCRETIONARY VIEWS : For IWM, the second resistance cluster including Quarterly R2 (87.15), Yearly R1 (87.01), Semester R1 (86.45) and Weekly R2 (86.26) has a strength of 21 and is the most likely area for a temporary top. A filling gap dip down to Weekly pivot (81.56) or (65,5,30min) volatility stop (81.64) would offer a low risk long entry. If one wants to bet on following the uptrend up to the second resistance cluster with multi-pivot 3:1 reward-risk ratios, the best is to use the long setups proposed daily on the IWM robot page.



Januari Opex for the rut was around 780. The RVX for the rut was 24 at that time. Feb Opex is 28 days from Jan Opex. Ergo the option market was pricing in move of 53pnts between Jan Opex and Feb Opex. We have 68% change of an Feb Opex between 727 and 833. Expecting a move all the way up to the 860-870 before Feb Opex I think would prove very big players on the option market (extremely) wrong.

Ernst