Jerry Samet
12-03-2011, 12:42 PM
The market started off strong yesterday in what looked like it might be a follow through day that would signal a new rally. The market then spent the rest of the day selling off to close about unchanged. Volume was mixed, rising slightly on the NYSE and declining a bit on the Nasd. Leading stocks did better than the overall market with the leaders index rising .67% on lower and below average volume. Some other market timing models have already issued buy signals and an FTD here would lend weight to those. There are however several factors that would have to make us skeptical of the chances of success of a new FTD. The three indicators that we use to confirm FTD's are not well lined up. The last FTD in Oct. that produced a tradable rally, probably the best rally of the year was the only one confirmed by all three indicators. Right now the weekly Coppock is in positive territory and so cannot signal. The %E's are in the 4.8% range, to low for a confirmation. There have been two Eureka signals in the last week so this indicator is properly set up. One out of three in a bear market does not give a lot of confidence. Also the major averages are right below their 200dma's, so they don't have much room to run after an FTD before they hit this important resistance. Overall I think this rally attempt should be treated with caution and if you play it you should play lightly. Jerry