Questions from a new member

[Pascal]

Good morning.
I received a few questions from a new subscriber.
As most of you know it, I always prefer to publicly respond to general questions sent to me privately.
Today - and for the whole week - however I have big time constraints which prevent me to post much.

I understand that Billy could easily respond, but I was thinking that maybe other members could respond too, or at least at this point, I'd expect that most members would know the answers to these questions.
Therefore, I will leave it to you to answer.

I would like to take this opportunity to welcome about ten new members who joined our Robot followers group last week.
Do not hesitate to ask questions, even questions that you feel might have been answered already.
It is better to ask questions and get answers than not asking them and then dropping out because you do not understand how the Robots work.


Pascal

The questions are below (screen image from my computer)

10836

[quentin798]

Welcome to the Board!

There you go:

A1. The dates are displayed US-style (MM/DD/YYYY). So 10/5/2011 stands for October 5, 2011.

A2. The GDX robot is not in a long trade since August 10. The sentence "The GDX MF has been in BUY mode since 8/10/2011" refers to the GDX money flow as calculated by Pascal, not the GDX robot. The GDX money flow is an essential part of the robot but not a trading system by itself.
Currently, the GDX robot is in cash and doesn't detect any reason to change its stance ("The GDX robot is in neutral mode”; “No advised new position"). A new buy/short position would be signaled by the sentences: “The robot is currently looking for a long/short position” and “The robot will buy/short at the open. The stop level is x.xx % lower/higher than the entry price”.

[pdp-brugge]

1. I have looked at the documents “Trading_IVM.pdf” and “Trading_GDX.pdf”. These studies explain in depth the history of the two robots. They include in their annexes a history of trades from July 2007 until April 2011 – the date the reports were written. Are there files that contain the history of trades since then up until now and are they updated?

2. I bought the book (in classical paper format) “Value in Time” and started reading it. It is very technical (to my present knowledge) and it forces me to constant turn the pages. This because Pascal describes very thoroughly the case samples but most of the time the graphs are printed on different pages and I am constantly turning pages. I wonder if there exists a eBook version of this book and if I can have a copy of that eBook. Then I can print the pages with the graphs I need while reading the theory behind it.
I can prove that I bought the paper version!

For the rest: it is amazing that this groups exists!
I have been searching for a long time for support on the subject of trading and found it now so close to home: I’m also from Belgium!

[yakovcohen45]

Dear New Member,

Welcome to the board !

Following please find my answers to your questions:

1. History Files - The robot exist from March 2011 only. The performance results since 2007 were to back test the Robot performance and to adjust the Robot algorithm accordingly.

2. Ebook version - I searched in amazon site and found a Kindle version of the wondeful book "Value in Time". It costs someting around 30$.

Good Luck,

Yakov Cohen

[pdp-brugge]

Dear New Member,

Welcome to the board !

Following please find my answers to your questions:

1. History Files - The robot exist from March 2011 only. The performance results since 2007 were to back test the Robot performance and to adjust the Robot algorithm accordingly.

2. Ebook version - I searched in amazon site and found a Kindle version of the wondeful book "Value in Time". It costs someting around 30$.

Good Luck,

Yakov Cohen

Ykov, Thanks for your reply

In the meanwhile, I found the eBook on the website of the BookDepository

I agree that the robot have only exists since March 2011 - my question should than be: Can anyone give my a detail of all the trades that the robot has made since their startup up until now?

[Riskslayer]

Ykov, Thanks for your reply

In the meanwhile, I found the eBook on the website of the BookDepository

I agree that the robot have only exists since March 2011 - my question should than be: Can anyone give my a detail of all the trades that the robot has made since their startup up until now?

Hi-

I believe that understanding the performance of the Robots is extremely important to building confidence and belief in the system that will enable one to trade the signals and not second guessing the robot, trading too discretionarily, and other self-defeating trading habits. Once you know the basics, the correct mindset is the important aspect to trading.

The Oct 5, 2011 "IWM Robot Notes" and "GDX Robot Notes" give performance numbers from Mar 2011 through end of day Oct 4, 2011.

Since Oct 4, 2011 - there have been no GDX signals. On Oct 5, there was a Buy Signal on IWM at 65.23 that was in fact executed at the lower price of 64.78 on the open. That trade was closed on the open today (Oct 11) at 67.72.

As of Oct 11, 2011 (after the open) both robots are in cash.

http://www.effectivevolume.com/content.php?979-IWM-Comments-for-October-5-2011

http://www.effectivevolume.com/content.php?981-GDX-Comments-for-October-5

Also, note from Aug 3-23, 2011, the IWM Robot was being modified and I don't believe tradings signals were being issued. Currently, Robot trades are not being initiated on NEUTRAL signals and are not part of the official Robot performance numbers. I am not sure if there were other modifications during the Aug period.

I tried to upload an .xls that I use to track the signals (I have redacted my positions).

Thanks,

Shawn

[Billy]

Ykov, Thanks for your reply

In the meanwhile, I found the eBook on the website of the BookDepository

I agree that the robot have only exists since March 2011 - my question should than be: Can anyone give my a detail of all the trades that the robot has made since their startup up until now?

Thanks to all members for their excellent answers.

Pdp,

Welcome!
We will soon update and post the official robot track records.
I prefer to let Pascal do it because he has all the archives but I have not.
Billy

[Pascal]

Thanks to all members for their excellent answers.

Pdp,

Welcome!
We will soon update and post the official robot track records.
I prefer to let Pascal do it because he has all the archives but I have not.
Billy

Sorry for the delay.
I just returned to the trading desk and will update teh 20DMF in about 15 minutes.
The robots latest records are shown below (I did not update with this morning's exit price for IWM).


Pascal

10856
10857

[Normand]

Hi Pascal

Regarding the stats tables for both robots.

One suggestion I would make to avoid confusion would be to change the title "Exit Date" to "Signal Date" because the dates showned are the after the close "signal dates" and the "exit price" showned for those trades are actualy the OPEN price of the following day OR the Stop Loss "exit price". I discovered this trying to recompute your results on a spreadsheet.

I would also add a note for future publications indicating that the "Exit Price" is the OPENING PRICE of the day following a signal OR the STOP LOSS price on that date.

I would appreciate if you could supply your excel formula to compute the counpounded returns because I get some small discrepencies with my formula (it may be just a rounding issue).

Normand

[Pascal]

Hi Pascal

Regarding the stats tables for both robots.

One suggestion I would make to avoid confusion would be to change the title "Exit Date" to "Signal Date" because the dates showned are the after the close "signal dates" and the "exit price" showned for those trades are actualy the OPEN price of the following day OR the Stop Loss "exit price". I discovered this trying to recompute your results on a spreadsheet.

I would also add a note for future publications indicating that the "Exit Price" is the OPENING PRICE of the day following a signal OR the STOP LOSS price on that date.

I would appreciate if you could supply your excel formula to compute the counpounded returns because I get some small discrepencies with my formula (it may be just a rounding issue).

Normand

Yes Normand, you are right regarding the rounding issue: some entry prices carried more than two digits, because they were taken directly from the Robot's calculations. I corrected these to limit to two digits and indeed, there is a 0.01% change on the compounded returns.

I also followed your advised and chnaged the exit date title.


Pascal

10863

10864

[pdp-brugge]

Hi Pascal,

Strange to address another person with my own name...

Thanks for your reply

I now have an other issue: I have made a subsription to both the Robots and to the EV database.
I am trying to find my way around the hugh amount of information...
When I try to access a post in "Value In Time" - "New introduction post from Bob English" and I click on the link to access "http://www.effectivevolume.com/showt...ead-this-first!", I get an error that I do not have permission to access that page?!?

Am I to novice to the forum?
Are there pages that I can not access with a full paid subscription?
Or is there an error in the link?

Please help!

[Billy]

Hi Pascal,

Strange to address another person with my own name...

Thanks for your reply

I now have an other issue: I have made a subsription to both the Robots and to the EV database.
I am trying to find my way around the hugh amount of information...
When I try to access a post in "Value In Time" - "New introduction post from Bob English" and I click on the link to access "http://www.effectivevolume.com/showt...ead-this-first!", I get an error that I do not have permission to access that page?!?

Am I to novice to the forum?
Are there pages that I can not access with a full paid subscription?
Or is there an error in the link?

Please help!

Please click on "Settings" in the right hand up corner.
Go to "My Settings" - "Permission Groups" in the left-hand menu list.
From there ask permission to join all forum groups you don'y belong to.
Permission will be granted by each Forum Manager ASAP.
Billy

[buzzman]

I assume that the returns are based on successfully filled limit orders only. That is, limit orders that are placed at the open that DO NOT get filled are excluded. Is my assumption correct. thx, bz

[Billy]

I assume that the returns are based on successfully filled limit orders only. That is, limit orders that are placed at the open that DO NOT get filled are excluded. Is my assumption correct. thx, bz

These returns are the true life official track records. All actual trades heve been executed at the indicated prices since being online.
Billy

[buzzman]

Billy, thanks for the reply, but being a rather novice trader, I'm still a little confused. After getting the ROBOT signals before the market opens each day, I place a limit order. Sometimes it gets filled, sometimes it doesn't eg. market gaps up and never looks back. If I continue this same procedure, am I matching the ROBOT, assuming I manage my stops in line with the ROBOT as well? Moreover, is my procedure correct?

[Billy]

Billy, thanks for the reply, but being a rather novice trader, I'm still a little confused. After getting the ROBOT signals before the market opens each day, I place a limit order. Sometimes it gets filled, sometimes it doesn't eg. market gaps up and never looks back. If I continue this same procedure, am I matching the ROBOT, assuming I manage my stops in line with the ROBOT as well? Moreover, is my procedure correct?

You can only match the robot performance by following the recommended procedure which is to invest 100% of your allocated capital in the initial trade of each new signal, when a limit order – or better - has been executed. Then you must use the robot trailing stop.
The robot never trades secondary entries and they are excluded from the track record. You are on your own risk management for all secondary entries.
Billy

[Harry]

Buzzman,

Let me take a crack at answering your question.

The only position the the Robot counts for it's performance is the first entry that gets filled - all others are considered secondary entries that are up to you to manage risk, stop limits, exits, etc. So, if you want to mimic the Robot as reflected in the performance table, you need to only buy the initial entry and ignore all other signals until that initial entry closes. Closes to the initial position can come from conflicting LT/ST stats, stop limit or MF signal.

Harry

[buzzman]

I really appreciate your efforts to help me. And I'm sorry to be so naive or just plain dumb, but my question doesn't relate so much to the ROBOTS performance but more to my entry procedure. If upon receiving a buy signal from the ROBOT, I place a limit order at the beginning of the next day and it doesn't get filled, do I just wait for the next buy signal opportunity because I'm assuming the ROBOTS buy limit order did not get filled either. Or do I take the next days ROBOT settings? I guess I'm asking how the ROBOTS order gets placed to meet the performance numbers if it doesn't get filled at the beginning of the next day.

I realize most everyone on this site is very experienced and I am so sorry to be asking such a dumb questions, but I love this process and this site, and I need some guidance.

[Billy]

I really appreciate your efforts to help me. And I'm sorry to be so naive or just plain dumb, but my question doesn't relate so much to the ROBOTS performance but more to my entry procedure. If upon receiving a buy signal from the ROBOT, I place a limit order at the beginning of the next day and it doesn't get filled, do I just wait for the next buy signal opportunity because I'm assuming the ROBOTS buy limit order did not get filled either. Or do I take the next days ROBOT settings? I guess I'm asking how the ROBOTS order gets placed to meet the performance numbers if it doesn't get filled at the beginning of the next day.

I realize most everyone on this site is very experienced and I am so sorry to be asking such a dumb questions, but I love this process and this site, and I need some guidance.

If you place the recommended limit order and it is not filled, the robot’s order will neither be filled. You will see the position of the robot on its page the next day.
You then must enter the exact same new limit price and setup than the robot for the next day. Note that If the robot can enter at a better price than the limit, it will adjust its initial stop price proportionally.
Billy

[Harry]

Buzzman,

Keep asking questions. We were all there at some point, I myself have a ways to go on the learning curve.

We are all here to either become or help others become better traders. The worst thing you can do is lose money by being hesitant to ask a question.

Harry

[buzzman]

Harry, thanks much for the patience and understanding and Billy I finally get it, thank you.
Please indulge me for one final dumb question today, I promise.

Looking at the performance numbers for the IWM trades (avoiding neutral signals) I see that the exit price is always in the area of 3.25 to 3.5% from the highest high or lowest low over the holding period of the trade when the reason is SL (stop loss). But when the reason was MF on the 8/24 to 8/31 trade, the exit price was only .016 away from the hightest high during that period. Is there an MF signal during the day?

How does the ROBOT manage stops?

[Rembert]

How does the ROBOT manage stops?

We don't know. The trailing stop is an adaptive volatility based system if I remember correctly. Something similar to the chandelier exit would be my guess. But the exact working is a secret :)

[Harry]

The stop limits are determined via Billy and Pascal work. The work involves use of ATR, volatility, pivot weighting, etc., I believe? The exact formula for the IWM robot stop limits is proprietary.

The MF signal comes from the 20DMF that Pascal calculates and periodically updates throughout the day. At the top of the main webpage you should see a link for it. If you click on it and scroll down, you will see a zoomed version that Pascal sometimes updates during the trading day if he's available. At the bottom are the rules for the 20DMF. So, for example, if the IWM robot is long and yet the 20DMF issues a sell signal, the Robot will exit it's position. When we are getting close to such a situation, Pascal or Billy will post a heads up message in the forum

Harry

[buzzman]

I think I'm up to speed. Thanks to you all again. bz

[pdp-brugge]

Hi shawn_molodow,

I find your Excelfile (Robot Stats - Q4 2011 - Group Post" very good!
I'm going to use something like take to further track the daily numbers that Pascal put's on the robotpages
I'm lacking the numbers of yesterday (10/12/2011)
would it be possible to place an updated excelfile (with your personal stuff off course removed) in this thread?

Kind regards

PdP

[Riskslayer]

Hi shawn_molodow,

I find your Excelfile (Robot Stats - Q4 2011 - Group Post" very good!
I'm going to use something like take to further track the daily numbers that Pascal put's on the robotpages
I'm lacking the numbers of yesterday (10/12/2011)
would it be possible to place an updated excelfile (with your personal stuff off course removed) in this thread?

Kind regards

PdP

Hi PdP:

Here you go. There has not been any trades on IWM since Oct 11 trade close; so, I didn't get yesterday's ST & LT edges b/c I was busy, but I did record them on Oct 12.

Take care,

Shawn

[pdp-brugge]

Hi PdP:

Here you go. There has not been any trades on IWM since Oct 11 trade close; so, I didn't get yesterday's ST & LT edges b/c I was busy, but I did record them on Oct 12.

Take care,

Shawn

Thanks Shawn,

here are the numbers for the 13th: LT 0.35% - ST -0.35%

Greetings,

PdP