Timothy Clontz
08-08-2011, 11:11 PM
The Sector Rotation model has advanced from about 10% into a bear to 20% in the last week.
The long selection (if you are long only) has changed from XLK (technology) to XLU (utilities) after today's action.
The short sector (if you are a market timer) is still XLE (energy).
The yield ratio model is targeting a bottom around 700 on the S&P.
That said, I note that in the entire history of the VIX, the limit of a sudden upward move has always been three standard deviations from its closest bottom. We are now three standard deviations above that bottom. The market really should slow down here.
Of course, as I write this, I see that the futures are 2% down for tomorrow...
The long selection (if you are long only) has changed from XLK (technology) to XLU (utilities) after today's action.
The short sector (if you are a market timer) is still XLE (energy).
The yield ratio model is targeting a bottom around 700 on the S&P.
That said, I note that in the entire history of the VIX, the limit of a sudden upward move has always been three standard deviations from its closest bottom. We are now three standard deviations above that bottom. The market really should slow down here.
Of course, as I write this, I see that the futures are 2% down for tomorrow...