IWM Simulation for Entries on Monday

[Billy]

Taking into account the new projected weekly and monthly pivot & floor levels for Monday, the line in the sand will be today's close above or below the 200-day moving average (+/- 79.55 expected at the close).

A close above 79.55 would give us a Monday's expected limit long entry at 80.07.
But a close below 79.55 would give us an expected limit long entry at 78.06.
That's a 2.51% significant difference!
So watch the close carefully to have an idea of the limit robot entry for a new position if the TEV extension on inverse ETFs doesn't turn red.
Billy

[davidallison@gmail.com]

Billy,
Am I correct in thinking the robot siganls are independent of a short signal of the 20DMF? So even with a TEV extension on inverse ETFs turning red, the robot could still be looking for a long position on Monday? Correct?
Dave

[Billy]

Billy,
Am I correct in thinking the robot siganls are independent of a short signal of the 20DMF? So even with a TEV extension on inverse ETFs turning red, the robot could still be looking for a long position on Monday? Correct?
Dave

Dave,

This is totally incorrect. The robot follows exactly the market direction signals from the 20 DMF.
It then looks for a 3:1 reward-risk ratio from the multi-pivots, always in the direction of the 20 DMF.
Billy

[davidallison@gmail.com]

Is that true for the GDX robot as well?

[Billy]

Is that true for the GDX robot as well?

Yes, except that the 3:1 reward-risk ratio from the pivots is only used for secondary entries.
From now on, initial entries will be at the next day's open when we have a Precious Metals MF signal change confirmation.
Billy

[brrim]

Billy; Thank you for the projected numbers as well as the 20 DMF intraday update. Both are very helpful.

Robert

[Pascal]

Billy,
Am I correct in thinking the robot siganls are independent of a short signal of the 20DMF? So even with a TEV extension on inverse ETFs turning red, the robot could still be looking for a long position on Monday? Correct?
Dave

In reality, there are three stages in the decision process:
1. The robot looks at the 20DMF market direction model (the signal must be TEV confirmed for shorts).
2. On that base, the robot will go dig into its trade statistics for short or long positions. The set of statitics is different depending if the 20DMF direction is long or short. The robot then compares the probabilities of short and long positions both LT/SH and then decides to go long or short.
3. Once the trade direction is taken, then the robot looks at the pivots and the 3:1 reward-risk.

When you see this process, you can understand that the 20DMF plays a major role. However, it happens that on step 2, the robot finds a different conclusion from the 20DMF direction model. This is however extremely rare (less than 1% of the cases) and when this occurs, it is only anticipating a 20DMF signal change by one day or so.

The process for the GDX robot is identical, except that the GDX robot does not care about the 20DMF. It works on its own MF direction model, which is explained in the GDX reference documentation.

Pascal