FTD probabilities for Monday 6-25-11

[Mike]

Some are expecting a follow-through day to materialize in the near time frame.
Volume is currently running less than the volume at the same time on Friday. Friday saw a huge rebalancing volume at the Friday close which will likely prove impossible to beat today. As I write this the NASDAQ is up more than 1%.

[adam ali]

Mike,

Could you clarify whether Tuesday June 21st was a FTD? The Quantifiable Edges blog states it was but I don't recall your confirming this using your own metrics.

If it wasn't, is it correct then that we have had no FTD in June?

Thanks.

[Mike]

IBD did not call the 21st a FTD. It was close and the central argument is whether the action on 6/16 qualified for a day-1 rally attempt or not. IBD chose to not define it that way as the day did not close high enough in the range. Scott O'Neil, (Bill's son) called it a FTD however so you can see it was close.
If one wanted to define it as a FTD it is okay, just keep close to the exits.