Jerry Samet
04-07-2025, 06:28 PM
It was a wild day, but at least there weren’t any large losses. The major averages opened sharply lower and gyrated back and forth all day on news stories. They closed in about the middle of their intraday trading ranges. The NASD averages were up slightly with the COMPQ and the NDX gaining .10% and .19% respectively. The SPX fell .23%. Volume was mixed, higher on the NASD and lower on the New York. Leading stocks were higher on the day. The leaders index gained 2.68% on the session. The index closed in the upper half of its trading range on lower but still very high volume. It was another volatile session today. After early losses the market rallied on a story that the tariffs might be delayed. It was false and the market bounced around the rest of the day. The SPX went into bear market territory at its lows. Some stocks did alright today and that might be an encouraging short term sign. The second leg of the bear market is playing out very quickly. I don’t know if it is over yet, but some kind bounce could happen here. I have expected a good bounce before and it didn’t materialize, so I am careful to do it again. Most bear markets have three down legs with two countertrend rallies in between. The first was very weak. If there is a countertrend rally here it could well have a follow through caused by volatility, and this should be treated with caution. We have likely not seen the bottom of this bear market, so preserving capital remains the primary objective. Jerry