Jerry Samet
08-10-2024, 10:39 AM
The market put in a mildly positive session yesterday with moderate gains. The major averages opened higher and mostly worked its way up the rest of the day. All the major averages finished in the upper half of their intraday trading ranges. The COMPQ and the NDX gained .51% and .54% respectively. The SPX rallied .47%. Volume was mixed on the day, higher on the NASD and lower on the New York. Leading stocks rallied as well with the leaders index gaining .61% on the day. The index closed in the upper half of its trading range on lower and below average volume. The market continued to snap back from losses early in the week and closed with small losses. The major averages held their 200dma’s, but remain below their 50dma’s. This moving average must be recovered in order for any real rally to occur. We are now in a position where a follow through could happen any day. Right now the confirming indicators are mixed. The %E’s are in position and a Eureka can occur on any day. The real problem is the weekly Coppock, and this is the most important indicator. It is not in a position to signal right now so any follow through in the very near term will not be confirmed by the most important indicator. We are also in a seasonally bad time for rallies. Few follow throughs in summer months produce successful rallies. I would treat any follow through right now with skepticism. The market will likely bounce around until it gets past the seasonally negative August September period. You never know what the market will do, but I believe this is the most likely scenario. Jerry