Jerry Samet
12-30-2023, 11:35 AM
2023 is now in the books and is was a good year. It was the first year of a new bull market as market by the Coppock curve. There was a new monthly buy signal in January for the Dow and in March for the SPX and COMPQ. This signaled a new bull market was starting, and it was a very good signal. It was a strong year for the major averages with the SPX gaining 24.2% while he COMPQ rallied 43.4%. It was a strange bull market because it started differently than most do. Bull market usually start out very broad and tend to narrow as they age. This one started out very narrow and most of the gain was in a few mostly big cap tech stocks. Also these were the leaders in the last bull market. Most bull markets do not have the same stocks leading as the previous one did. In the last couple of months it looks like the rally might be broadening out and small and mid-cap stocks were strong into the end of the year. This would be encouraging as it would likely strengthen the bull. It was a good year all around, but if you were in the right stocks or ETFs you did very well. A small number of mostly big cap tech stocks accounted for most of the advances in the major averages. This is unusual in a new bull market as they usually start out broad and narrow as they age. The first year of a new bull market is almost always the best year in the entire cycle. We are nearing the end of that first year, but the second year is usually positive as well. I think 2024 will be another good year and we should see solid gains. I would expect to see some weakness in early to mid-January as a couple of the short term indicators I look at have turned down in the last week of 2023. This may produce a consolidation or mild pull back, but I don’t think the current rally or the bull run is over. Rallies that start in the October or November time frame often run into the March time frame. All rallies are different but that is the most common course. 2024 will likely be another solid up year, but not as strong as 2023. Jerry